Technical Outlook - Gold's Subject? Lagging Silver Fits Deflationary, Recession View. #Silver's breakout has stalled at about $30 an ounce despite record-setting #gold, which may augur what's needed for the white metal to keep advancing. The old ceiling at around $26 appears akin

Gold Tailwinds: Rising Volatility, Falling Rates - If US #stockmarket volatility can stay buried and interest rates relatively elevated, #gold may take a back seat to the S&P 500, which augurs the potential for some normalization. It's the substantial room for reversion upward in

Inverted CGBs vs. USTs May Pave #Gold's Path - A bottoming out head-and-shoulders pattern may be happening in the gold/SPX ratio. My graphic shows the metal's per-ounce price divided by the S&P 500 (SPX) at 0.45 is about the same as 2006-07, which is the last time China's

Is Gold Signaling a Great Reset? Ratios Are Leaning That Way - #Gold has been gaining momentum vs. the AI-driven US #stockmarket, which isn't a good sign for the global economy. Buried US stock market volatility and high interest rates, especially vs. #China -- a top gold buyer

Bitcoin is down almost 9% this quarter and TLT is up about the same -- is this trend the NBT, next big trade? youtube.com/watch?v=NiJuRi… #commodities #stockmarket #bonds #bitcoin #macroeconomics

Gold vs. Crocodile Jaws - High Rates, Low Volatility. Bull markets get expensive, and that can work against #gold, but it may prove temporary as indicated by the closing crocodile jaws of high US rates and low #stockmarket volatility. The full report is on the Bloomberg terminal

CGB 30-Year at 2.32% May Guide Long Bond, Gold - Room for downward reversion in US Treasury-#bond yields may be part of what record-setting #gold is sniffing out. My graphic of the UST 30-year since 2007 shows how unusual current yields above 4% have been, notably compared with

Sub-4% Long Bond May Be Next Step Toward $40 Crude, $3,000 Gold. WTI #crudeoil dropped to about $69 a barrel on Sept. 5 -- a level first traded in 2005 -- and may pave a #deflation path commensurate with its #inflation to a $130 peak in 2022. A bit of back-and-fill in the

Is it the economy, or the stock market? Rising gold may be sniffing out that the highest US #stockmarket cap to GDP in about a century, may be the economy. That the S&P 500 recently stretched to the greatest ever vs. the MSCI ex-US Index, about a 25-year high vs. the Bloomberg

Crude Breach Akin to 2014 - What of Bonds? The last time WTI #crudeoil fell below a similar support line, the US Treasury 30-year yield was on its way down from around 4% resistance toward 2% support in 2014-16. I see parallels for crude to continue doing what it has since 2008:

"What we anticipate seldom occurs" Benjamin Disraeli Consensus - No worries the #stockmarket usually dips in Sept. and recovers. One of my favorite charts below suggests great reset. The full report is on the Bloomberg terminal here: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/s… #gold #commodities

Commodities Tilt Toward Global Recession - With the US #stockmarket cap at about 2x GDP, equity prices may be a primary factor for inflation/deflation and the coming easing cycle. If stocks stay resilient, the central bank might be less inclined to cut rates. Falling base #metals

Of Virtues, Elevations and the Most Powerful Market Force - Reversion. How can this not be the 10 on a 1-to-10 scale of what matters in markets? At the end of 2009, when #Bitcoin was born, a 10% drop in the US #stockmarket was in dollar terms about 10% of GDP. A 10% drawdown now,

A Double Top That Nobody Wants? SPX/Gold - On a total return basis, the S&P 500 (SPX) has never been higher vs. spot #commodities and the rest of the world's #stockmarkets. It's the potential for a double top from the 2021 and 2024 highs in the SPX/gold ratio that I find the most

The High-Price Cure May Be Contagious - The environment appears favorable for #commodities to do what's typical following pumps akin to the 2022 peak -- get cheap. US #naturalgas dropping in 1H to levels first traded in futures in 1990 and the #grains reverting to the 1973-74

Trickle Down Risks? Commodity High-Price Cure Contagion Leanings - Buy the rumor, sell the fact for risk assets appears to be at play approaching the start of a widely anticipated #FederalReserve easing cycle and an upcoming US election, with trickle-down implications. #Gold and

Commodity Sellers Set Sights on Crude, Petroleum - The broad commodity market is on the cusp of breaching key support, and sold-out speculators appear to agree. My graphic shows the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index (BCOM) hovering near old highs from 2008-11, while futures specs in

Hedge Funds May Face Sell-Stops In Copper - Futures speculators are still way long #copper despite falling #crudeoil and government #bond yields in the US and #China. About 22% of LME and CME #futures open interest was net-long to Sept. 6, compared with bottoming patterns closer

Hedge Funds Hit Crude Bids, Lift Corn Offers to Ride the Bear - A commodity bear market is my takeaway from the latest COT #futures data, with selling shifting to #crudeoil from #naturalgas and the #grains. Despite way sold-out managed money (#hedgefunds), crude has breached key

#Gold beating the US #stockmarket and most #commodities falling is a global #recessionary trajectory. Can beta avoid a normal correction and buoy most boats or is lagging #Bitcoin signaling the race is over? #macroeconomics