GB200為2024年AI伺服器研究的關注焦點，但目前此對鴻海貢獻的能見度仍有限 / GB200 to be the focus of AI server research in 2024, but limited contribution visibility to Hon Hai currently

link.medium.com/Ef8749kXWHb

最近我多次被詢問蘋果是否計劃在 2025 年或 2026 年量產可折疊 iPhone 或 iPad。我的最新調查顯示，蘋果目前唯一有明確開發時程的可折疊產品，只有配備約20.3'顯示器、並預計在2027年量產的MacBook。

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Recently, I've received many inquiries about whether Apple plans to mass-produce the

先前2024年iPhone出貨的市場共識為2.2-2.25億部，現在已經開始下修，並向我之前預測的2億部靠攏。如果Apple今年無法推出優於市場預期的生成式AI服務，Nvidia的市值將很有可能超越Apple。

The previous market consensus for 2024 iPhone shipments was 220-225 million units, and it has now started to fall, moving closer to my earlier prediction of 200 million units. If Apple can't launch better-than-expected GenAI services this year, Nvidia's market cap will very

三色變四色，黑白變彩色。

Apple停止Apple Car開發的討論熱絡，看似一件大事，但全世界沒有一檔股票因為這件事而大漲或大跌 (如果有請提醒我，謝謝)。資金是很老實的，這代表資本市場早就不在意Apple是否要開發Apple Car這件事。

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There is a lot of discussion about Apple canceling the development of the Apple Car. It

Apple Micro LED更新：

1. 我最新的調查指出Apple已經取消了Micro LED Apple Watch的開發計畫，原因在於Apple認為Micro LED並不能顯著提升產品附加價值，加上生產成本過高，不具投資效益。

2. Apple已經遣散了Micro LED開發團隊中大部分的人，目前所有Micro

Apple Micro LED update:

1. My latest survey indicates that Apple has canceled the Micro LED Apple Watch projects because Apple thinks that Micro LED can’t add significant value to this product, and the production costs are too high to make it economically viable.

2. Apple has

元太可望顯著受惠於Amazon採用彩色電子紙與Walmart採用四色ESL / E Ink expected to benefit significantly from Amazon’s adoption of color e-paper and Walmart’s adoption of four-color ESL

link.medium.com/OE0QZ2kgBHb

Losing all visibility is a good leading indicator.

Vision Pro更新：美國市場需求已大幅放緩、全球發佈時程預測、供應鏈擴產與退貨率解讀、新機種預測、投資策略

link.medium.com/j7Q1uXWMyHb

Vision Pro Update: US Market Demand Slowing Significantly, Global Release Schedule Forecast, Interpretations for Supply Chain Production Expansion and Return Rates, New Model Prediction, and Investment Strategy

link.medium.com/j7Q1uXWMyHb

手機產業自1月至中國農曆年結束 (2月中旬) 的重點更新 / Key updates in the mobile industry from January to the end of the Chinese Lunar New Year (mid-February)

link.medium.com/gXR9ExabeHb

2024 iPhone shipments likely to decline significantly by about 15% YoY due to structural challenges / iPhone 2024出貨量在可能因結構性挑戰而將顯著衰退約15% YoY

link.medium.com/uswSuR2GMGb

Vision Pro首週末預購檢視：符合預期但隱憂浮現 / Vision Pro’s first-weekend pre-order review: expectations in line, but concerns raised

link.medium.com/bqGuhyNAyGb

Apple is likely to release Vision Pro outside the U.S. market before WWDC 2024 / Apple可能在WWDC 2024前，於美國以外市場發售Vision Pro

link.medium.com/eRmexmIkpGb

大立光罕見正向看待淡季高階鏡頭需求之深度分析：玻塑混合鏡頭、華為歸來與鏡頭單價上漲，以及AI手機成為Samsung S24/高階手機新賣點

link.medium.com/0NhXudhZmGb

In-depth analysis of Largan’s rare positive outlook on off-season demand for high-end lenses: Hybrid glass-plastic lenses, Huawei’s comeback with higher lens prices, and AI smartphone becoming a new selling point for Samsung S24/high-end models

link.medium.com/0NhXudhZmGb

Apple will produce 60,000 to 80,000 units of Vision Pro for the February 2 release. Since the shipment is not large, I believe that Vision Pro will sell out soon after the release.

Although Apple has not clearly defined the product positioning and key applications of Vision Pro