BoA on Sahm Rule says "this time is different" as "Sahm rule has never been triggered at such a low level of claims... Add to that the solid activity data and this leaves us comfortable with our base case of a soft landing."

Total BoA card spending per h/h +2.8% y/y in wk ending Aug 31, "likely driven by the change in the timing of Labor Day compared to last year." Furniture saw the biggest increase w/w, entertainment the largest decline.

Ari Wald (Oppenheimer): “Last week’s notable action included a new cycle high for the equal-weighted S&P 500, indicating the cap-weighted index has masked stronger internal action. The percentage of NYSE stocks above their 200-day average is similarly coming off a reading of 65%.

Well it wasn't by much (1 penny) but #natgas did close over $2.25. I was hoping it would be by a little more, but it is the highest close since July 12th & w/the favorable technical setup it's got everything in its favor to take a run higher. $UNG #oott

#Bitcoin futures close below the 200-DMA for the first time since Mar ‘23. I put a longer term chart up (5yrs) so you can see sometimes this has seen positive action shortly thereafter (circles) and sometimes the opposite (rectangle). The daily MACD & RSI are inconclusive with a

Equity sector breadth weakened along w/the weaker day in small caps. 8 sectors down (from 6) & 5 more than -0.5% (just 1 y'day). In a big reversal from recent action, it was the megacap growth sectors (discr, comm services, tech) which were the only green sectors. As a reminder,

Stock-by-stock $SPX chart from Finviz shows the broad weakness outside of the largest stocks.

#Copper got a bounce but just back up to the underside of its 200-DMA. It needs to get back over that before we can really look higher. But it kept the daily MACD & RSI from fully rolling over. #oott

#Gold finished higher moving off the 20-DMA, but overall continuing its sideways trade of the past three weeks just below ATH’s. The sideways action has now seen the daily MACD & RSI turn a bit negative but really more neutral than anything. $GLD #oott

While they pulled back, $VIX remains just under 20, a level implying a move of over 5% over the next mth & $VVIX remains over the 100 level flagged by Charlie McElligott on the Odd Lots podcast.

#Dollar fell back for a 2nd day from the downtrend line from the start of August, mostly a victim of a strong yen after higher than expected Japan inflation figures overnight. Daily MACD & RSI are mixed. $DXY $USD

In contrast, 1-Day $VIX rose to its highest since the August dislocation. Outside of that period it's the highest close on record (to Apr ‘23).

Broadcom slides -5% after giving a tepid revenue forecast despite above exp'd AI sales guidance suggesting a slowdown in its wide array of non-AI operations. The drop also comes despite beats on top & bottom lines. $AVGO bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Companies making the biggest moves after-hours from CNBC. $DOCU $AVGO $PATH $BOWL $IOT $SMAR

#FOMC rate cut probabilities edged slightly lower ahead of NFP tomorrow with the CME’s Fedwatch now showing a 41% chance of 50bps cut in Sept (& 67% by Nov) w/109bps of easing priced in (from 112 y'day) & 229bps through Sep '25 (from 228).

Treasury yields pushed lower again with the 10-yr yield down -4bps to 3.73%, lowest close since June ‘23 & the 2-yr -2bps to 3.74%, lowest close since May ‘23. #UST

Another day with buying into the close evidencing perhaps more systematic releveraging.