Keine Ahnung was mit Destatis los ist. Erst kommen die (Einzel-)Handelsdaten Monate lang nicht und nun fehlt die Hälfte der saisonbereinigten BIP Details, zB die Stundenlöhne. Statistisches Bundesamt was heißt denn "zu einem späterem Zeitpunkt"? Geht es um Tage oder Wochen?

What would Draghi do? Or maybe more correctly, what would Draghi have already done? Ifo employment intentions took another broad-based dive in August making a similar move in the EZ ESI data quite likely. IMO time for Lagarde to follow Powell's lead and focus on the labour market

An attempt to quantify the economic impact of the various small measures contained in the German government's recent growth initiative. It's not nothing, but colour me sceptical on a full and timely implementation by the quarrelling coalition.

German headline inflation likely undershot 2% in August based on state level data. Maybe 1.8%. I guess there might be a rate cut in September....

The most sophisticated way of extracting CPI implications from today's ESI details continues to point to core inflation momentum easing towards 2% by year-end.

Is it just me or has the sub2% inflation release broken the Destatis webpage 😂

An interesting nugget from Germany's Q2 national accounts. Effective wages stagnated q/q in Q2, so it would take a huge pickup in H2 to reach the BuBa's 6% wage forecast. It's not impossible given the looming and already made wage deals. But IMO looks like downside risks apply.

New markups paper alert! 👇👇👇👇 How do markups vary over time along the supply chain? To address this question, I'm very excited to share a new working paper from the HBS Pricing Lab, joint with Santiago Alvarez Blaser, Alex MacKay, and Paolo Mengano: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

Die AfD gilt als Gewinnerin der Landtagswahlen. Wie lässt sich ihr Ergebnis erklären und wo schneidet die Partei besonders gut ab? Ich habe dazu Strukturdaten & Wahlergebnisse zusammengetragen und am Beispiel Sachsens einige statistische Modelle gerechnet. Ein Thread. 🧵👇

Way way above consensus with no forecaster on Refinitiv having expected a positive reading. I had a 0.6% gain. Gotta celebrate the little wins. But on substance, this isn't a great release despite two strong months as big ticket orders dominated. Underlying demand still stagnant.

CHART OF THE DAY: Not only Brent oil prices have fallen sharply (flat prices), but the entire price curve (time-spreads) has flattened significantly. Today's curve remains backwardated, but inter-month spreads for 2025 are flirting with contago as traders price a surplus. #OOTT

If you want to see a little bit more positive German data, the already released VDA car production data points to a strong August. But that is strongly impacted by SA given low # of working days and probably timing of factory vacations. ifo survey, too, remains downbeat.

This is down from a flash estimate of +1%. I reiterate my call that we should have official Eurostat series for Eurozone ex Ireland...

Yes, Germany's July IP report was horrendous, raises odds of a renewed GDP contraction in Q3, and will kindle recession talks. But the 2.4% m/m drop was heavily driven by the car sector's 8% plunge, where a strong bounce looks likely in August.

The eurozone GDP deflator was below 2% annualized in Q2 with the smallest contribution from wage costs in two years.

The Draghi report has just dropped - and it is surprisingly good and low-bullshit. My initial takeaways:

As so often the ECB's forecast assumptions already look stale on the day the new projections are released. The latest energy commodity futures for 2025 are some 10% below the likely ECB assumptions.

Core goods inflation also looks more likely to remain dis- or even deflationary contrary to some warnings from eg Schnabel. Presser today might be a good time to ask, if the council shouldn't be more worried about inflation downside risks than recent communication suggests.