TS Francine has officially formed, ending the long stretch of quietness. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches have been issued for the Gulf Coast.

It's always fun to plot a Skew T!

Francine is forming an eye and is at 60 MPH. I do believe Francine does become a category 2 hurricane before dry air entrains the system. Preparations along the Gulf Coast need to be underway now.

While I do believe Francine will become a cat 2, there could be some downsloping of dry air from the mountains of Mexico that could inhibit some intensity.

Tropical Storm Francine is spinning in the Gulf and Ethan Kerr, and I dive into the storm in the reintroduction of Weather Watch! youtu.be/VtqQRkcCcZw?si…

Thank you Jake Moody!

Weather term of the day: Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)

Hurricane #Francine Advisory 9A: Francine Becomes a Hurricane. Life-Threatening Storm Surge and Hurricane-Force Winds Expected To Begin in Louisiana On Wednesday. hurricanes.gov

We honor the memories of those taken from us and the courage of those who answered the call to help. Let us never forget.

Weather term of the day: Somali Low Level Jet

It's pretty easy to see that Hurricane Francine is being sheared as the cloud tops are being blown away from the center. The forecast is still for cat 2, but I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't make it given the more hostile environment.

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Seven, located to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands in the eastern Tropical Atlantic, at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).

Landfall is not too far away on the Louisiana coast.

Weather term of the day: ageostrophic wind

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is in the westerly phase (+). The +QBO will help to keep the SPV more bottled up at the pole this winter. Looking at early analogs with ENSO/PDO/QBO, 2005/06, and 2007/08 are looking like good analogs at this point.

Weather term of the day: Bounded weak echo region (BWER)

Weather term of the day: Microburst

Beautiful evening for baseball and a hot air balloon ride! #PAwx

It's looking like the NHC is drawing up products for Invest 95L off the Carolina Coast. The SHIPS is crossed, and the DRCL is running, classic signs.

Weather term of the day: Warm Front