"The stock market will do whatever it has to do to embarrass the greatest number of people to the greatest extent possible." -- Deemer's Law Of Perversity (page 45)

*US CHALLENGER MARCH JOB CUTS RISE 319% Y/Y That's 89,703 job cuts in March which adds up to 270,416 YTD --- The oldest question again ... Is this good news for risk assets (stocks) as it means a lower probability of a May hike? (Probability of a May hike is currently 43%) Or

Ok, so equities are rallying off the weak overnight futures while at the same time the 2 year bond is 🚀. Simultaneously plunging bond yields and rapidly de-inverting the 10-2 y spread. The bond market either knows the numbers or gambling like they are playing with Terra-Luna.

Just putting this out there. Multi asset bond fund performance from 5/00 during 10/2 y similar yield curve de-inversion (end of rate hikes from 6.5% Fed Funds Rate, then cuts followed by FFR hiking) up to 8/07 marking the end of the Goldilocks pause. SPX 20% vs bond fund 59%

WEEKEND POST UP 🦖 Geopolitics and the markets. This one’s FREE to all. Charts are coming midweek and in CHAT GT. Retweets very welcome but probably still disabled by Twitter ☹️ If you get a warning message ignore it it’s fine. open.substack.com/pub/godzillatr…

Just remember, there is some lonely guy who really believed the world was ending in 2002 as well and sold this mutual fund of Small and Medium caps. His $500k portfolio would have been worth $4M today with compounding interest 😉.

Aug 15th, 1982 NYT article marking the bottom of the bear market with a 300% melt up within next few years and 1500% over next 18 years. FFR 17%, worst 10y/3mo inversion next to now and inflation 6%. At this time, SPX was only down 25%. "THE last leg of a bear market is often

For all those who are upset that they haven't caught "the bottom". Veteran investors such as William O'Neil who has traded through the 70' and 80's believes you only invest into cup and handle formations to mark true bottoms. Either MACD chartist or O'Neill contemporary ...

John Doss CFA, CPA Small and medium caps can't be measured be the entire 2000 stock portfolio but by portfolios focusing upon lower PE, high growth potential. When looking at this portfolio, if shutting out all the noise ... does this 45% drop look more like a bottom or a top? Not financial advice.

Same place as 1980, feels like 1980 inflation and Fed hikes, 10y/3 mo inversion worst since 1980, strong economy 1980, house prices climbing like 1980... if this is like 1980 which suffered a max drawdown of 25% peak to trough of the SPX ?Bottom x.com/lizannsonders/…

1975, 1982 were hiking cycles, with high inflation and declining LEI's as severe as now. Impressive returns immediately following these two periods. Also showing similar LEI declines as 2002 and 2020 at worst declines. Unless the Fed is willing to risk 2008 style ...

NYC today. My medical assistant's friend took pic. No altering. Looks fake but zoom in faces and will see normal pic. You can taste the grit here in NYC region on lips. 🔥🔥🔥

If we are at a similar place as the 40% decline in NDX from July to October of 1998 ... then this thing may have serious legs.

Probably my favorite Tesla video of me pulling into the garage using the sensors. Look at the man in the top right of screen and what it actually was 😂

BREAKING: Roaring Kitty of GameStop, $GME, has scheduled a Live Stream - June 7, 2024

Remember, the odds of a 5% correction is 64%. The market goes up 60-70% of the time by an average of 11% per year, but that return comes at a price, in the name of volatility. It’s important to maintain a long-term perspective at times like this. Despite the sharp rotation in

For only the 21st time since 1928, the S&P 500 closed more than 1.8% below its lower Bollinger Band, with the index in a long-term uptrend. Similar price patterns preceded an 85% win rate for the world's most benchmarked index over the subsequent six months.

Just a little tussle this morning in my Neighborhood of Manhasset 😎. Former top aide to NY Gov. Hochul charged with acting as foreign agent for China cnbc.com/2024/09/03/hoc…

Wall street today … thanks for playing