Pedro H Dejneka (@phdchicago) 's Twitter Profile
Pedro H Dejneka

@phdchicago

Papai & husband 1st! Founder/Partner @ MD Commodities. South America/World agricultural commodities & macroeconomics analysis - Basketball lover & Coach 🤙🏻

ID: 357252461

calendar_today18-08-2011 02:33:32

6,6K Tweet

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Pent up demand from buyers on sidelines likely shows up much sooner on the interest rate ladder (5-5.5%) than homeowners with 3% mortgages start letting go in large quantity. Housing likely continues surprising & defying consensus calls in 2025 - still a very regionalized market

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I remember watching this as a little kid… dreaming of one day wearing that magical jersey! That dream fueled a hunger and a journey that has brought so many blessings in my life ❤️ It truly is about the JOURNEY! And today I get to share the love I have for the 🇧🇷 National

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When utilizing REALISTIC demand figures, 24/25 🇺🇸 soy carryout is undoubtedly 600+ (if not close to 700 mb) unless we see a MAJOR issue in SA Yeah, yeah, funds too short blah, blah I agree to a point & hope for a bounce soon, but fundamentals are decidedly bearish nonetheless

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Spot on comment here by Cordon. Again, the producer LONG is multiples (~ 10x in new crop only between 🇧🇷🇺🇸) of what the current fund short is… This is (or at least should not be) “new knowledge”. Unfortunately 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

Spot on comment here by Cordon.

Again, the producer LONG is multiples (~ 10x in new crop only between 🇧🇷🇺🇸) of what the current fund short is… 

This is (or at least should not be) “new knowledge”. Unfortunately 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
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Moments like these are worth MORE than ANY🥇 medal! THIS is what fatherhood is all about! This man and his daughter GET IT! ❤️🤙🏼

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As everyone wastes time debating .5 - 1 bpa moves in soybean yield - here's a reminder that as is, 🇺🇸 soybean demand is likely overstated by the equivalent of a 2-3 bpa reduction in yield We could rally soon for a few reasons, none of them would be actual "fundamentals"😉

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🇺🇸 soybean sales to 🇨🇳 picking up right on cue Best 🪟 for U.S. exports is Oct - Jan That’s the good news! The not-so-great news: sales well behind pace for USDA’s lofty 24/25 exp Despite good expected sales Oct-Jan, hole is far too big to dig out of. Exports are overstated

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Hmmm - if we could only have seen this coming 🤦🏻‍♂️😉🤔🧐 Great post here on jobs data 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻 Are you paying attention yet folks?

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🇧🇷 soybeans: - CONAB’s starting point is at least 15 MMTs below the crop’s true potential - No, the “historical 🇧🇷 drought” has not impacted the crop - Ideal soy plant window for most of 🇧🇷 is Oct 10 - Nov 10 - Rains by Oct 10-15th = good - No rains past that = no bueno

🇧🇷 soybeans:

- CONAB’s starting point is at least 15 MMTs below the crop’s true potential

- No, the “historical 🇧🇷 drought” has not impacted the crop

- Ideal soy plant window for most of 🇧🇷 is Oct 10 - Nov 10

- Rains by Oct 10-15th = good
- No rains past that = no bueno