A LEKKER REAL-TIME UPDATE “Man Politely Asks Bear to Leave Party, Part 2” I haven’t done one of these since May 1st (quoted tweet) due to the fund launch, but I am now able to discuss Lekker publicly so let’s go. First, a quick plug. If you’re an accredited investor who has

We are exactly two months away from the US election. Imagine how mispriced so many assets are right now if Trump wins. 10yr sitting at 3.77%, Bitcoin at $57,000 and the commodity/energy complex trading in the dumps.

Throbby The simple answer is technological advancements in the extraction of oil and creation of alternative energy sources that have increased the supply faster than demand has grown. This is not a doom and gloom story, unlike what you often hear. Demand growth is positive and will be

I think my new favorite line is "the market always gives something for everyone to latch onto". It's a derivative of a saying Paulo Macro told me a few months back, "everyone gets what they want out of the market", in regards to notion of 'would you rather make money or sound

Watch how just as all of the late recession doomers pile in, tomorrow’s NFP marks the narrative change from weakening economy/recession fears to Fed put optimism and their rate cuts working. FOMC is going 50 in September.

What does this to do oil demand? Asking for a friend.

max.hl Not silly at all. For some reason people on this app can't comprehend Bitcoin and stocks being uncorrelated, but that's exactly how they might trade. The further stocks go down, the more monetary easing gets pulled forward and the more Trump's odds improve.

"Ahh, very interesting. Tell me more about how you (and every other person on the planet) think Friday's NFP is going to be weak and the markets will sell off. How did you arrive at that conclusion now that JOLTs, Challenger/ADP and Fed beige book have all been super weak?"

“Dear self, Make sure you buy the dip in Bitcoin that is statistically guaranteed to come in late September. Sincerely, 99.99% of crypto Twitter”

The market is telling you everything you need to know but you don't want to listen and for some reason need to see tomorrow's NFP that everyone knows is not going to be good. Every single piece of economic data this week has been weak and yet the market is not dropping anymore on

Matt Ferrari Quinn Thompson Jonah Eric Crown Oh really? September is usually a down month for crypto? Funny. Hadn’t heard that yet…

Rodeo I have been asked / heard talked about 50 bps being bad for markets a million times in the last week (to give you an idea where consensus is). But it doesn't make sense to me from a first principles way of thinking. I believe it is wrongly assigning causation instead of

Thrilled to have Quinn Thompson from @Lekker_Cap join us at @CoinAlts! 🚀 Discover macro trends and digital asset strategies with us. 📊 #Crypto #DigitalAssets #CoinAlts #LekkerCapital

Seasonality bros are in the lead thus far. September MTD: NVDA -9.9%, IBIT -4.5%, SPY -2.5%.

Woke up this morning, looked at the markets and thought it was August 5th again. Nasdaq down in the pre-market and Yen carry trade warnings everywhere.

Stocks can stay expensive longer than bears can stay solvent

Economy is fine. Crypto president has a massive lead in the election. Fed is about to commence the first global central bank cutting cycle in 4 years. And you're offsides and out of position because you gave into the herd fear mongering. As 47 would say, "Sad!".

The solid NFP print with negative revisions is the definition of goldilocks. Fed can point to even weaker prior months to rip 50 off this month but August shows an improvement from declining trend so market can look forward to better economy.

The top in bonds / bottom in yields is in. Take it to the bank.

Agreed 🤝