which way, oil analyst?

crude prices making headlines and then ending up back at $80

A $50/bbl oil market is 𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙞𝙧𝙚𝙡𝙮 𝙥𝙤𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙗𝙡𝙚 in 2025 BUT these headlines always leave out that such a scenario would be a 𝙘𝙝𝙤𝙞𝙘𝙚 𝙗𝙮 𝙊𝙋𝙀𝘾 Make the OPEC+ assumption explicit or get outa here.

ARA Europe Gasoline stocks sinking while distillate stocks soaring

🇮🇷 #Iran's new oil minister has set ambitious targets for his four year term, among them serious upstream capacity gains for both crude and gas production. Here's my attempt to decipher and contextualize those plans and the challenges he faces. #oott 🔓 argusmedia.com/en/news-and-in…

And you're bearish diesel?

October '24 RBOB gasoline crack spreads (vs Brent) may have finally found a bottom after nearly halving from early August levels.

Diesel crack spreads continuing to weaken. October 2024 contract cracks (vs Brent) now at their lowest level since 2020.

Crude, stahhhhhp. You're Fridaying the wrong way.

WTI in the $60s Clear signal for more drilling, US oil rigs +5 At this pace, US producers will be supplying all of the world's crude for free by the end of the year. Thank a driller for their generosity.

Never noticed.

As we await CFTC COT data for the next 10 minutes, worthwhile reflecting on the fact that net Managed Money position in Brent crude fell to a 𝙣𝙚𝙩 𝙨𝙝𝙤𝙧𝙩 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙛𝙞𝙧𝙨𝙩 𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙚 𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙧 over the past week-through-Tuesday.

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📉📈 Crude prices finally bounced after reaching a 3-year low on Tuesday, with the dive lower and subsequent rebound driven far more by speculative repositioning than any immediate fundamental factors. Full report: commoditycontext.com/p/ocw-37w24 Summary:

🏦 NEW RECORD CRUDE SPEC LOW 🏦 Net speculative position fell to a mere 1.7% of total open interest, a new record low below even the 2.6% we saw in the depths of COVID-collapsed Spring 2020. Positioning risk is 𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙬𝙝𝙚𝙡𝙢𝙞𝙣𝙜𝙡𝙮 𝙗𝙪𝙡𝙡𝙞𝙨𝙝 coming off these levels

It’s always interesting how differently people react to jokes about how a one-off rig count increase implies that we’re going to the moon vs a rig count decline implying that we’re going to zero. Fwiw I really don’t think all that much about any particular weekly rig count move.