when i go to the club, i wanna hear those club classics

One other interesting thing I've noticed WRT Atlantic forecasts is the mid-latitude pattern seems more El Niño right now, even though the deep tropical circulation is clearly more La Niña. There's a strong STJ across the Gulf region, lots of troughing along 30-40N, etc. Almost

Current visible satellite imagery suggests to me that boundary layer is destabilizing ahead of upper wave - note changing characteristics of lower-level CU as one travels east to west. Gravity waves in eastern CU field suggests stability, but this is not the case further west.

AOS Prof. Jon Martin was 1 of 3 faculty highlighted by Chancellor Mnookin at Convocation for their ability to inspire students. His 100-level course was called one of the best at UW and in the country! A fitting shout-out for someone who has influenced countless students.

Packers could be the first team to start a season undefeated in the southern hemisphere (in the Super Bowl era)

Isaac Schluesche He wasn’t expecting the reversal of the Coriolis force

One consequence of this +NAO appears to be anomalous advection of low theta-e air towards the eastern Atlantic MDR. As I've mentioned previously, the airmass near the Canary Islands is already more stable than usual, perhaps due to anomalously low moisture in the area.

Badgers + cheese curds checking in from Fort Collins, CO Wisconsin Badgers

A weird tropical cyclogenesis case in the Gulf looks to be imminent, with two vort maxes from very different origins undergoing a binary interaction and soon merging. The soon-to-be TC will find itself in a very favorable upper environment, and could intensify pretty fast.

12z HAFS-B does a good job of illustrating some of the intricacies forecasting the Gulf disturbance. Phasing of former 90L with 91L will have significant impacts later on. Furthermore, interaction with land (or lack thereof) will likely dictate the intensity of any resultant TC.

I won't claim to be an expert on mesoscale NWP, but I thought this was a good example of the necessity for care when using hurricane models to forecast nascent TCs. 12z HAFS-B analysis and FH03 - note the outsized change in wind and pressure fields in just 3 hours

email responses in this generation are WILD.

Francine has certainly been feeling the impacts of dry air and southwesterly shear, capping intensity throughout the day. However, the storm now seems to be attempting to wrap convection upshear - potentially signaling the start of a period of strengthening.

Radar ( KBRO) and Recon (NOAA Aircraft Operations Center ) of Hurricane #Francine. Dropsondes of layer avg (below 2.5 km) relative humidity (%) still show some pockets of drier air but overall more favorable than the past 24h. Also some NE tilt w/ radar beam ~7-km altitude & recon wind (2.5km)

Apropos of nothing youtube.com/watch?v=5hfYJs…