New variant MV.1 is spreading quite rapidly, and looks a potential next challenger against the now-dominant DeFLuQE variants (KP.3.1.1 and descendants), perhaps rivalling XEC. MV.1 first appeared in Maharashtra, India in late June. 🧵

The story might've ended there, but after almost a month the next sample was recorded. It has since spread quite rapidly to 9 countries on 4 continents. Around 40 samples have now been reported. 🧵

In North America, MV.1 has mostly been reported in the north-east US. In Canada; Ontario and BC have reported the first samples. 🧵

In Europe, MV.1 was first reported in Portugal, then Scotland, then Ireland and the Netherlands. 🧵

MV.1 is descended from JN.1.49 by way of MB.1.1.1. That long evolutionary path has been most successful in samples from India, without any notable success elsewhere. MV.1 reverts the Spike K478T mutation to the ancestral (Wuhan) type. 🧵

Globally, MV.1 is showing a competitive growth advantage of 4.4% per day (31% per week) over JN.1.* + DeFLuQE variants. This is just a shade slower than XEC's current global pace. 🧵

ExplosiveEnema 𝗗𝗿 𝗔𝗷𝗮𝘆 𝗠 𝗩𝗲𝗿𝗺𝗮 Partha S Kar 🇮🇳🇬🇧🏏🎥 Mamas A. Mamas Dr Sandeep Bansal Dr Ali G #StandWithUkraine #CeasefireInGazaNow 💔 Ben Chadwick ClinOncDoc Samuel Parker Dr Asif Qasim 💙 Evidence base in GI is most trainees not getting signed off for full colonoscopy by CCT now. GI SpRs doing GIM. Meanwhile...

PS: wrt to the maps: Locations are approximate - typically country and state/province.

Mike Honey OK, Questions. Is MV.1 a co-developing strain alongside XEC? Do we have any indications of mutual aggression leading to species elimination or are they completely independent? Are we entering a multi-variant event scenario?

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John West 🕯💙🇺🇦 🗿 Yes alongside, they have followed completely different evolutionary pathways after JN.1, and originated in different places. A multi-variant scenario seems quite possible. We've seen this several times, e.g. FLiRT vs FLuQE: both sustained at non-trivial levels for months.

John West 🕯💙🇺🇦 🗿 Spike mutation comparison:

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