Fun Fact: The win-win set up in September. If $SPX above 5,522 come September 23rd, there is 98% probability of achieving 5,800 by year-end. If SPX is NOT above 5,522 come September 23rd, there has historically been no probability it would not achieve 5,700 by year-end. May

#Deflation 🇺🇸

Some misinformation in today's US presidential debate about who bears the cost of tariffs. So let's talk about how tariffs affect what you pay for a suit. 🧵

Skills 😜

A quick reminder from your macro professor that the Fed's 2% target is based on PCE inflation. CPI inflation is typically about 0.4 pp above that, so today's 2.5% CPI read is pretty darn close.

please see the job call.

Experience and gut instinct tell me that oil's passthrough effects to core inflation are more pervasive and drawn out than appreciated in real time. E.g. looking at plunge in oil in the last couple weeks, I doubt August rise in airfares will be sustained.

#CPI 🇺🇸

So many of you know my "Taylor" style by now. This is 95% trade: Sell Short day, 2-per ROC 2 days up ready to flip down,slow of slow line has just turned down.

In 2015, Donald Trump said that Republican politicians would be easy to break, Mark Leibovich writes. He was right. Also, "the other party’s God, Joe Biden’s 'Lord Almighty,' would finally get through the White House switchboard." theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…

CPI heat index, via CreditSights Interesting to see the jump in transportation services, with airfares seemingly rebounding.

As my friend Taylor Swift so eloquently stated, now is the time to research and choose the candidate that speaks to you and your beliefs. Only 54 days left until the election. Make sure you are registered to vote! Your vote in this election may be one of the most important

The most absurd number in CPI? According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 31% over the last 2 years and 10% over the last 5 years... bilello.blog/newsletter

#Arizona

Something out of a movie

No way

Past 72 hours: 1. biggest ever one-month drop in online grocery prices 2. biggest ever one-week drop in shipping container rates 3. McDonald's extends $5 value meal 4. Disney cut ad-tier streaming price 5. Gasoline futures imply an imminent sub-$3 national average

This has normalized and then some: PPI airline passenger services -2.7% year/year in August ... near a 3-year low

Some of the upside in core CPI came from airfares, which appear to be running softer in PPI. Thus, look for core PCE to come in weaker than core CPI in August. It's likely that August was another month core PCE ran about two percent annualized (maybe a little less).

Fun stat of the day: Today is the 176th trading day of 2024 and the S&P 500 is up 17.6% YTD. Last year on the 176th trading day of the year, the S&P 500 was up 17.7% YTD.