📊 Check out the last Michael's fatalities pattern that mostly led to a decreasing conflict risk in history. Explore more: 🗺️ Webapp thomasschinca.github.io/Pace-map-risk/ 📄 Monthly Report forecastlab.org/predictionmap 💻 Github repo github.com/ThomasSchinca/…

📊 Our new monthly report is in ! Check out the last @Dem. Rep. Congo's fatalities pattern that mostly led to a stable conflict risk in history. 🗺️ Webapp thomasschinca.github.io/Pace-map-risk/ 📄 Monthly Report forecastlab.org/predictionmap 💻 Github repo github.com/ThomasSchinca/…

What was worse: the debate or its media coverage? Biden's win probability has taken a significant hit.

Between 240 and 270 seats (out of 577) projected for the extreme right in France. This is very bad news for everybody. Vote in the second round.

An underrated story in this French election is young people’s total rejection of centrism. Macron’s party wins among people aged 70+, and absolutely bombs with 18-24s.

We've all heard about corruption of national governments. However, quantifying corruption of 𝘭𝘰𝘤𝘢𝘭 governments is incredibly tough. A new dataset provides data on local government corruption for 1,473 regions in 178 countries from 1995-2022:

Really interesting stuff. Large econ impact of Brexit on the UK, *except* for Northern Ireland. Why? Because Northern Ireland has effectively remained in the single market--the rest of the UK hasn't.

A good example of correlation, not causation. The distance to a train station is most likely correlated with education levels, a strong determinant of voting behavior

The idea of a geographic divide also fuels the far-right's narrative of a disconnect with "elites," which is both misleading and dangerous. This graph from a 2017 book is problematic because it ignores education as a controlling factor, likely explaining the observed effect.

The tactical cross-party candidate withdrawals in 🇫🇷 to stop Le Pen’s party winning a majority may be working. The first seat projection by a polling group for the final vote on July 7 shows the RN getting 190-220 of 577 seats, well short of the 289 needed Source: Harris Interactive

This is basically wrong. The reason economists publish less is that the min publishable unit (MPU?) in econ is big. Fields make diff choices on this. The finance MPU is smaller than econ. The CS MPU is tiny. The MPU in some humanities/soc sci fields is a good which is longer

Desperately seeking a 🇫🇷 government. With no bloc holding a majority, 3 scenarios : -minority left-wing government (short life guaranteed) -cross-party coalition (differences hard to overcome) -technical government (last resort) In ⁦The Economist⁩ economist.com/europe/2024/07…

How (not) to publish a paper: 1. Submit paper 2. Rejected, R3 demands X 3. I'll do X later 4. 5 years later, f***k it, resubmit the exact same paper without X

📊 Check out the last Burundi's fatalities pattern that mostly led to a decreasing conflict risk in history. Explore more: 🗺️ Webapp thomasschinca.github.io/Pace-map-risk/ 📄 Monthly Report forecastlab.org/predictionmap 💻 Github repo github.com/ThomasSchinca/…

"We show that Black families whose ancestors were enslaved until the Civil War have considerably lower education, income, & wealth [today] than Black families whose ancestors were free before the Civil War." Forth @QJEharvard by Lukas Althoff & Reichardt lukasalthoff.github.io/jmp/althoff_jm…

For those of you doing PhDs that need to hear it: your dissertation is an exam *not* a published book & totalising perfection *is* the enemy of the good & the great. If this reminder is helpful, do pass it on.

Senior faculty presenting the paper written by their graduate student

Going straight into the syllabus, where it will appear on IV Is A Party Trick, Not A Real Method Day.

Modern econometrics

Social science papers are too long. That's it.