⚡ NEW ⚡ Deputy Director Stephen Millard explores the role of the OBR and how to reform it for The Times and The Sunday Times ⬇ ✍ "There are (at least) two main problems with the system: that the #OBR must take #government policy as given... and the fiscal rules themselves" hubs.la/Q02MHjzw0

This is an important report from the OBR, demonstrating the long-term impact of public investment on economic growth. It has some big implications for the UK’s fiscal framework. Quick thread:

Great piece from Stephen Millard I made a very similar argument here about how Labour could strengthen the Budget Responsibility Bill labourlist-org.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/labourlist…

Really important stuff from OBR: "We find a sustained 1 per cent of GDP increase in public investment could plausibly increase the level of potential output by just under ½ a percent after five years and around 2½ per cent in the long run (50 years)." obr.uk/public-investm…

The key message of this OBR report is that you have to take a long term view of the costs and benefits of public investment as per Green Book guidelines for individual projects. You shouldn’t be constrained by an arbitrary fiscal rule about the debt ratio falling in 5 years time

Good piece here on today's OBR paper and implications for Labour from Tom Rees

The OBR has published a paper laying out the case for Rachel Reeves to embark on a public investment splurge It says investing 1% of GDP will raise output by 0.5%, rising to 2.5% in long-term Paving way for more borrowing to invest? Via Tom Rees bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Err wtf Newcastle United FC ??

Find it interesting that this is being shared by both left and right wing commentators on my feed. It's definitely broadly right (though there would also be a financing cost for govt, just much lower)

Wow, wonder what convinced them to break their club record fee to sign an unproven kid?

Chelsea trying to see if they can beat 115 charges.

The FT may be onto something in worrying about elite US economics being a closed shop but when they can’t name a single woman in their list of ‘dissenters’ perhaps they are missing something in their diagnosis? on.ft.com/4dFSELG

David is right that the mission for growth (which is the only way to unlock ultimately break out of the fiscal straightjacket) needs to mean prioritising public investment. This is a long-term project, and Labour should make a virtue of that fact.

If you had offered us these results straight after the Schar red card we would have been delighted. Performances not quite there yet, but points on the board, through in the cup, and key players coming back. Onwards and upwards.

🪙Few thoughts on what OBR’s important report will mean for govt’s first Budget: 1. Now a much stronger argument for reversing the investment cuts announced by last govt: set to be cut from 2.5% of GDP to 1.75%. This would have a big effect on growth, starting this parly &rising

Really good piece this. Hard to adopt a long term strategy when you have a fiscal framework focused entirely on the short term. Is there anyone out there defending the 5yr debt rule?

Excellent David Smith! My own (unpublished) work with Issam Samiri عصام سميري and The Productivity Institute illustrates the gain from having a longer time horizon. From left to right we become more patient and the capital stock increases. National Institute of Economic and Social Research Economics Observatory Office for Budget Responsibility HM Treasury

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Dame Sharon White warns against the short termism of capital investment cuts in lunch with Martin Wolf

Pretty remarkable that the free market right's narrative of why the UK economy has been terrible under the Conservatives just doesn't include austerity and huge cuts to investment.