Tropical Storm #Debby is intensifying in only limited fashion off of #SouthCarolina, as expected, with a still broad circulation observed by aircraft reconnaissance. The biggest hazard from Debby remains rainfall-induced flooding, which is ongoing and will continue in the

Surface observations, satellite images, and radar data indicate that the center of Debby made landfall near Bulls Bay, South Carolina. This does not mean the flood threat has ended! A high risk of flash flooding continues for portions of South Carolina, North Carolina, and

Tropical Storm #Debby continues to bring heavy rains, flooding, and occasional tornadoes to #SouthCarolina, #NorthCarolina, and #Virginia as the storm moves slowly northward. Flooding hazards will spread into the northeast U.S. over the rest of the week. Stay tuned to your local

A new tropical wave west of Africa will be monitored for development next week as it tracks towards the Lesser Antilles in a favorable environment. The disturbance is currently broad and likely to organize only gradually during the weekend, but a tropical storm could form after

The tropical wave in the central Atlantic expected to develop next week has been labeled Invest #98L by National Hurricane Center. Scatterometer data shows 25-30 kt southerly winds on the eastern side of the wave pocket as the large disturbance begins to organize. A compact, closed

🌀 Sunday discussion on Invest #98L, expected to become a tropical depression or storm near the Leeward Islands of the Lesser Antilles by Tuesday. If/when 98L becomes a tropical storm, its name would be #Ernesto.

🌀 NHC is issuing advisories on "Potential Tropical Cyclone Five" (#PTC5), which will be named #Ernesto if/when it becomes a tropical storm. 🌀 No videos from me today or tomorrow, unfortunately, as I have other responsibilities sunup to sundown - I apologize. Non-video updates

Tropical Storm #Ernesto was officially named yesterday, and this morning has generated a closed circulation in aircraft reconnaissance data. The center passed just south of #Montserrat this hour. Ernesto has been organizing only gradually so far, and max winds are about 45 mph.

Recon data from #Ernesto shows that the wind field is strengthening, with max winds of 50-60 mph observed north and east of the center. Intensification is expected to continue as the storm passes by the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

🌀 Wednesday update on Hurricane #Ernesto, still bringing flooding to #PuertoRico and the #VirginIslands, and likely to impact #Bermuda at the end of the week.

Hurricane #Ernesto continues to intensify, but only gradually due to a still broad wind field that has not contracted or symmetrized sufficiently to allow faster strengthening. Ongoing light to moderate north or northwesterly wind shear and its associated dry air entrainment is

Hurricane #Ernesto is approaching #Bermuda, with the tropical storm force wind field and primary rain shield set to arrive within hours. Max surface winds being measured by reconnaissance aircraft are in the 85-100 mph range, with the eastern side of the circulation being a bit

#Ernesto creeping up on #bermuda National Museum Bermuda: 83 mph Department of Marine & Ports Services: 84 mph L.F. Wade Airport: 73 mph

Hurricane #Ernesto is beginning to pull away from #Bermuda after passing directly over the island earlier this morning, bringing hurricane force winds with gusts over 80 mph. Hopefully everyone there is staying safe today, and wishing a speedy recovery from the aftermath.

The tropicaltidbits.com web server had a hiccup that brought it down for about an hour, but it's back up now.

The tropicaltidbits.com website is back up after being down for a few hours - not yet sure what happened overnight, but will investigate. Some model plots will need time to catch up.

Watching a surface trough in the central Atlantic this weekend which has a chance to develop when it moves into the Caribbean next week. Born out of a weak monsoon trough, the disturbance is elongated SW to NE and does not have a well-defined circulation yet. Environmental

I would argue it's significantly better than spaghetti. If you take the National Hurricane Center 5/7-day genesis verification over the last 3 years and average them, the likelihood of a TC forming is generally quite close to the predicted probability in the Tropical Weather Outlook. This

This tropical wave is now in the central Caribbean, and has not been strong enough to develop a circulation within the brisk trade wind flow. Its next opportunity will be when trade winds slow again in the western Caribbean while the wave approaches the Yucatan Peninsula or