Quick thread on the facts of the E Jean Carroll case as I understand them: Evidence that looks bad for Trump: >Carroll testified in court that the rape occurred >Two friends testified that Carroll told her that it occurred at the time

Noah Smith writes article complaining about Nazis. In it he seems relatively supportive of Israel celebrating that Palestinians were kept out of the DNC. As spicy as it is to say, Israel is probably the developed country with views closest to the Nazis where the majority of the

Quick thread about Trump and polling. There is a common idea that polls always underrate Trump but this isn't quite true. In 2016 true was slightly underestimated in national polls, But the state polls varied.

Trump was overestimated in all of the southwest states, AZ, NV, NM and CO:

Of course Trump was underestimated in places including MI, PA, FL and NC

And pretty substantially underestimated in IA, WI, MN and OH.

In 2020 overall polls underestimated Trump more than they did in 2016:

This collection of battleground states shows him being underestimated as well:

But it doesn't include states were he was correctly estimated like NV:

Or where he was overestimated like MN or GA:

So polls probably underestimate Trump on average, but there are many exceptions.

Churchill asks Hungarian ambassador to tell Germany to bomb his own people. I guess maybe it could have been a joke, but if not it seems like this presents a pretty different version of Churchill than what the average Brit thinks of.

Women are getting more concerned about being sexually assaulted since 2000:

This is more true among single women:

They also seem more likely to carry pepper spray:

Similar trend: x.com/TruueDisciplin…

Source: storylines.substack.com/p/after-metoo-…

Nick is delusional to think he was always on Trumps side: >Trump has always been a strong supporter of Israel and Jews >Trump has never supported America as a Catholic country >Trump has never been a strong supporter of social conservatism >Trump has generally supported legal

Lets play a game of madlibs: "Youth is wasted on the young and (country) is wasted on the (ethnic group)"