Forward priced in Real yields (the ones that impact the economy today) are 100bp below peak 3 months ago. QT was cut by more than half. The Fed's own fast moving gauge is negative which means FCI is not neutral but accomodative. The slow moving 3 year gauge just went negative.

Might be the most accurate piece of research ever published

My dear friend and accomplished investor David Hay featured my latest report, "It's Not The Economy, Stupid!" in his substack👇👇 open.substack.com/pub/haymaker/p… Make sure to subscribe for David's contrarian and original views!

Q2 GDP GROWTH REVISED UP TO 3%! 💪💪 Tell me again about the Sahm rule, the flaws ofthe birth/death model, and why we need emergency rate cuts🤡🤡 bea.gov/news/2024/gros…

I had a terrrific conversation with David Lin on the imaginary recession, the Fed, and why the Euro will become the new Yen. Carry trades don't die, they just move. youtube.com/watch?v=Rg4UcK… Enjoy!

Even Bloomberg acknowledges that passive investing requires trading, which impacts prices! Michael Green 's tireless advocacy is working💪💪 The Sammon/Shim paper shows that index funds effectively pay for the SBC-based lifestyle of big tech employees. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

From Apollo research:

Does itlook like inflation is "on a sustainable path to our two percent objective”, as Powell promised in Jackson Hole? Look at core services for the past three years now ➡️4% is the new 2%!

INFLATION IS A PROCESS, NOT AN EVENT Happy to share and chat over DM - quote is from last week's report "To quote Matthew, no one knows the day or the hour when these things will happen, but I remain convinced that the next shock will be inflationary, because the underlying

📌 Is the Eurozone the Next Japan? A Look at Monetary Divergence 👀 .Vincent Deluard on #RVPlus 👇 Start with FREE ACCESS to Real Vision rvtv.io/4cG9k5m

Join Vincent Deluard for the October installment of StoneX’s Quarterly Global Macro Update “It’s Not the Economy, Stupid!” to get Vincent’s insight on the economy, fake recession signals, inflation, and more – Oct 8 from 12-1 p.m. Eastern. stonex.cventevents.com/GlobalMacroUpd…

This is a milestone chart for the global economy: For the first time, China’s ultra long-end government bond yields have fallen below those of Japan.

Thanks Jack Farley ! I am truly amazed by what you have built at Forward Guidance and wish you the best

Covid price increases were transitory. Goods prices generally returned to pre covid levels. But service prices were/continue to be supported by deficit spending led/sustained by gov interest expense from Fed rate hikes: