Swear there’s been a massive bump in Things Can Only Get Better in the last few weeks

From my wee sister:

Knock-knock, who's there? 🚪💨

We polled the public on the names associated with the children's game involving knocking on someone's door and running away... (1/3)

Wild that the biggest impression John Major left is one recurring joke from Spitting Image in the 80s

I think it would be a wee bit of a reach to call this the 'Natalie Elphicke effect' atm - There's much, much more chance this is just stats noise.

However, shouldn't rule out some kind of bump from this before seeing more data from other pollsters!

Did it?

Think the Tories have hit rock bottom?

13% of those who are still backing the Tories in this poll want to see a Labour government after the next election.

Aside from being really rude this speaks to an unhealthy trend in politics of trashing the expertise of people you disagree with. John Curtice is the ultimate professional who has done more to bolster public understanding of elections & ensure transparency of polling than anyone

Imagine having the arrogance to try and trash John Curtice! Disagree with analysis - fine. But you play the ball not the man.

Substantive points on PNS are 1) Many Greens / LDs will vote Labour at GE 2) Reform not standing everywhere likely inflated Con vote.

Change my mind.

The difference between predictive and pulse-taking polling methodologies is proof of how diverse and interesting the industry has become

You could argue that neither of these polls are wrong in their own approaches to the question of 'how would you vote?'

Extraordinary figures and worth noting that even if this lead *halved* it’d still be a bigger lead than Blair had in 1997.

2022: I'm ready to become a journalist to deliver hard-hitting political scoops 💪

2024: 🕺💚
politicshome.com/news/article/s…

Thrilled to have been put in this article from Zoë Crowther and PoliticsHome - The Sadiq suit has been seeping into my thoughts recently, so VERY excited to have weighed in!

politicshome.com/news/article/s…

I, too, idolise Mr. Tayto and his bountiful fruits

Reactions on here to the Elphicke defection are very online. Just listened to the news bulletin on Classic FM (that’s how I roll): Conservative MP defects, criticises PM on small boats, then snippet of PM defending position. Many voters will digest at that level.

We have a new addition to the 'images of Sam Coates Sky hearing shock news' canon

I wrote - five times! - in the newsletter that the London mayoral result would be closer than the polls suggested. Some thoughts on what I missed and what I think the useful lessons for the general election are: ft.com/content/836826…

BREAKING:

Tory MP for Dover Natalie Elphicke has defected to Labour

She says that the party has changed beyond recognition and 'looks to the future - 'to building a Britain of hope, optimism, opportunity and fairness'

She says Rishi Sunak's government is failing to keep…

NATALIE ELPHICKE???

you're just having a fucking laugh now guys

Monty Panesar, the former England cricketer, has withdrawn as a candidate for George Galloway’s Workers Party of Great Britain at the next election

Is this a good idea for Tories to support?
Taking the 2021 Assembly elections as an example. The Conservatives were even with Labour in postal ballots (both on 34%), but Labour had an 11-point lead on in person ballots.
Bailey also equalised with Khan on postal ballots.