There is considerable public support for running the railways in the public sector: survation.com/new-polling-re…

Rwanda as a migration deterrent? In the Australian example, nearly 100% of unauthorised maritime arrivals were sent to offshore processing centres. Have supporters of the Rwanda policy explained how it would be a deterrent if, in fact, levels of processing in Rwanda are as low as…

Partygate. Scandalous spending. 4 Prime Ministers in 5 years.

Trust in British politics is on the brink. Can we fix it?

Join Naomi Smith Ros Taylor Damian Lyons Lowe Julia Meadon this Thursday to discuss restoring trust, live from 9am.

Tickets here👇bestforbritain.org/crisis_of_conf…

The Government is running out of time to fulfil its promise to renters. If it fails to impose a proper, immediate ban on no-fault eviction a new Survation. poll for 38 Degrees shows that voters will see it for what it is: a broken promise.
inews.co.uk/news/politics/…

Because it's being talked about again - just want to reup this I wrote last year. We should not assume that uniform swing will reassert itself at the next election. It didn't in 97. And last year's locals saw anything but.
sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/06/labour…

New blog post: Why are MRP estimates so variable when the uniform national swing is so predictable? chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/changing… tl;dr MRP doesn't look like uniform national swing right now but will closer to the election; campaigning brings things into line w/ UNS (cc Survation.)

I think one poorly understood issue with MRP is that like any modelling technique it is a trade-off. A simpler model will have clearer assumptions but deliver implausible outcomes in some seats. A more complex model will adjust for more factors but will be more opaque and make…

Peter Kellner, who is no fan of MRP, wrote a long blog, cherry picking a handful of single seat estimates he thinks wrong, to conclude that Survation's Labour majority prediction of 286 is outlandish.

Meanwhile, today's YouGov poll, dropped into Baxter's model (more like UNS…

The inventor of the 'Trust to put up a shelf?' political question was the always innovative journalist Simon Walters. This was our pre-2015 GE shelf picture from 2014.

Nigel Farage was actually the most trusted on shelves (by a small margin) but perhaps crucially, Miliband came…

Two key differences between Survation and YG MRPs:

A) YG are reallocate DKs on the assumption some will revert back to previous voting behaviour (helps Tories)

B) YG are adding more tactical voting adjustments (helping LDs).

At Survation we recommend that clients get a “regular polling table” alongside their MRPs to provide perspective on the demographics among other factors.

Notwithstanding that, the Scotland cross-break, despite its size, remains merely a cross-break - Scotland is not individually…

Survation surveyed 1,019 Londoners aged 18+ on behalf of ITV News on the upcoming Mayor of London election on 2nd May. Results show that Sadiq Khan is very likely to win and secure a third term. 44% intend to vote for Sadiq Khan - 18 points ahead of nearest competitor - Susan…

Great post by the Survation team on their MRP. Really clear and helpful.

As Chris alludes to here, we’re in the nowcast not the forecast business. Things might happen, things might not - we’ll be monitoring until the election.