Near-term positive/supportive #oversold stochastic levels accompanied by large intraday #priceswings , the #SP500 just posted its first positive week in August, breaking a 3-week #downtrend . If #stocks have settled down…what's the next card in the deck?
dayhagan.com/research/day-h…

YTD the QQQs are up over 41% while the Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) is up just over 9%. Interestingly enough, over the past 3 years, the annualized return for IWD (+11.23%) is still 175 bps greater than QQQ (+9.48%).

Lots of discussion around the increasing number of bankruptcies and delinquencies. We note that credit spreads (OAS) are holding in, with IG Corps, HY, MBS, and Agencies below long-term average levels. Reversals higher would signal that a more risk-off stance is warranted.

Mark your calendars! Join Art Huprich, CMT, for the next Technical Analysis on September 12, 2023. Gain insights into #equitymarkets , both #domestic and #international . Don't miss this opportunity! Register here: bit.ly/dayhagantech #TechnicalAnalysis #FinancialMarkets

The U.S. Recession Probability Model based on state conditions indicates that the odds of a near-term recession are relatively low. The model is based on employment and wage-related measures.

The NDR Sentiment Composite has moved to neutral levels from the excessively optimistic peak in July. A drop to around ~30 would put sentiment at levels seen at the December 2022 and March 2023 lows. A drop to ~16 would be consistent with what was seen at the October 2022 lows.

Higher #interestrates are weighing on #equities , and focus will be on the Fed’s conference this week.
#bondmarket #techtalk #Financial #stockmarket
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Why do we use models to stay on the right side of major trends? Part of the answer is that managing through secular cycles is key. We recognize that buy/hold can be awful for long periods of time. If you bought in late 2000, it took almost 11 years to decisively break above even…

Since 1953, the average number of months from the last rate hike to the first rate cut was 7.6 . The shortest period of time was 3 months and the longest was 20 months. Puts a bit of a damper on rate cut hopes near-term. Ned Davis Research

U.S. Treasury Bond Futures sentiment back to extreme pessimism levels. Historically, this has been a first step toward finding support. We're looking for sentiment to trough and then reverse before upgrading our outlook. The Ned Davis Research composite includes measures of advisor…

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We used to call this day trading. I've been in this business since 1988 and have yet to meet a successful day trader that lasted over an entire market cycle. (Yes, I understand that a percentage of the volume is likely hedging activity.)

The Fed has no idea how this will end. Hope is not an investment (or monetary policy) strategy.

Webinar exploring smart #investingstrategies , #balancedportfolios , & #riskmanagement techniques to enhance your #portfolio process. This #webinar will provide valuable insights & practical knowledge to #optimize your #investment approach. Register at: bit.ly/3RmEnsZ.

Great visual from Ned Davis Research showing how the S&P 500 reacts during different treasury yield curve environments. The $SPX has historically posted strong gains except during bull steepening periods which is when both the 2Y and 10Y are declining w/ 2Y declining faster.

Even with the slight uptick in yoy PPI, the Inflation Pipeline suggests that disinflationary pressures for the Crude, Intermediate, and Finished Goods segments could continue to exert downward pressure on the CPI.

Short-term models and indicators remain mixed. However, margin debt (starting to increase again) is constructive. Note the previous reversals in margin debt occurred in 1974, 1982, 2002, 2009. All were good times to buy for the long-term.

Webinar exploring smart #investingstrategies , #balancedportfolios , & #riskmanagement techniques to enhance your #portfolio process. This #webinar will provide valuable insights & practical knowledge to #optimize your #investment approach. Register at: bit.ly/3RmEnsZ.