Shadow Chancellor on Laura Kuenssberg reaffirms “fiscal lock” - all significant& permanent spending /tax policies would need full independent OBR forecast first - j.e even “immediate” plans wouldn’t be implemented overnight (OBR can’t scrutinise opposition parties’ policies)

Some services e.g justice, higher education may face cuts to future budgets of c. 10%, imply the current spending totals pencilled in which would allow Tories & Labour to meet fiscal rules. Shadow Chancellor on Laura Kuenssberg wouldn’t be drawn if those would be averted under Labour

Is there a science behind general election slogans?

Listen to Adam Fleming and Chris Mason on the latest #BBCNewscast …

Inflation failed to fall nearer to target due to sticky services inflation, only nudged down to 5.9% (hotels, restaurants key issue) - it’s that which worries Bank & may deter June rate cut. Good inflation actually negative due to energy bills.

Not often that you can say #StarWarsDay has been upstaged by local politics. But this is 2024, and what a gripping drama. With more instalments no doubt to follow.

It’s happening…Environomics, a guide to what happens when net zero ambitions meets economics is out late June, published by ⁦Elliott & Thompson⁩

#IsraelGazaWar - six months on..

No change in rates from the Bank of England - but a shift in mood that brings hope for many borrowers. Our report for ⁦BBC News (UK)⁩ at One

Newscast: in which ⁦Faisal Islam⁩ & I discuss inflation - & find ourselves in the doghouse. Catch up on ⁦BBC Sounds⁩ bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0…

'By opting for tax cuts the chancellor's chosen curbs on spending that could hit public services'

BBC chief economics correspondent Dharshini David provides analysis on today's Budget

bbc.in/435ajrG

How much of m (2028/29) headroom will 2p cut in NI & freezing of fuel duty take up? Roughly £12bn (assuming that cut to duty only extended by 12 months). i.e to have decent buffer left, Chancellor will have to do more than rifle down back of sofas for spare change

Remember, for every headline Budget measure there’s trade offs - and varied impacts. E.g typically likely to benefit from a NIC cut least (& hampered by any accompanying spending cuts) are those on lower incomes & women
- in this case, also those voices less heard in commentary

What would you do with £40,000? That’s how much of our money the government is spending per household on average this year. My short & snappy 5 Questions podcast on ⁦BBC Sounds⁩ looks at what Budgets actually do bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0…

Aka, as I mentioned yesterday on BBC Radio 4 government isn’t expected to hike duty, continuing decade long practice - but protocol means OBR sums (eg in Autumn Statement) have to assume rising until said otherwise. Wld be bigger story if resumed duty “escalator” in election yr

Chancellor: people “come to the limit of how high they’re prepared to see taxes go”
But tax burden may still be set for post-War high. Can it be reversed? Here’s one ⁦Caroline Bayley⁩ & I made earlier for ⁦BBC Radio 4⁩ ⁦⁦BBC Sounds⁩ bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00…

More than 50 correspondents and presenters from ⁦Sky News⁩ ⁦BBC News (UK)⁩ ⁦CNN International⁩ ⁦Channel 4 News⁩ @ITN NBC News ⁦ABC News⁩ CBS News stand together to call for access. I am among them. This by ⁦Alex Crawford⁩ explains 🔽 news.sky.com/story/israel-h…

In which Torsten Bell & I get to be Taylor Swift warm up act, graciously hosted by Adam Fleming Chris Mason
Recession Sessions may not be the catchiest title - but flatlining economy has been hitting our prosperity for a while, how we escape the malaise is a vital question

The jobs market is stalling, suggest the latest official numbers : what does that mean for those trying to get into work - and those helping them? With huge thanks to Smart Works Charity & Society of Occupational Medicine, our report for BBC News (UK) at 6

It was Alistair Darling who had to field the news that RBS would “run out of money by the early afternoon” and calmly took action to steer us through the turmoil and guard against fallout. And a delight to deal with. Sad news.

Fiscal drag is basically the act you’ve followed for ages - but the bulk of people have just discovered