Don Johnson colorado_golfer The narrative requires context.

It's not a 'housing unit shortage.'

Since 2012, housing units under construction have increased by 12% per annum.

Multi-family units increased at 15.5% per annum!

There are plenty of housing units; they are just oversupplied in multi-family,…

March saw a drop in single-family permits, which, if continued, would begin to end the upturn we are seeing in single-family units under construction.

Multi-family permits continue to plunge, which will keep downward pressure on MF units under construction.

Pre-tax corporate profit margins remain at secular highs.

This is likely one of the factors that has provided a cushion for employers to retain labor longer than average.

If you're not following & subscribing to this Eric Basmajian, you're doing it wrong. Over the many years in the business (yes, I'm old) I've prob subscribed to hundreds of analysts at one time or another.

One of my favorites.

Fact based, consistent, rational analysis.

Inflation lags employment.

On average, core inflation lags Coincident Employment by roughly 12 months at cycle peaks and by roughly 10 months at cycle troughs.

Pre-tax corporate profit margins remain at secular highs.

This is likely one of the factors that has provided a cushion for employers to retain labor longer than average.

Employment data continues to come in very soft in the NFIB Small Business Survey.

Both of these metrics are components of the 24-variable KC Labor Market Conditions Index.

Manufacturing is showing more cracks than residential construction, but both critical employment categories are avoiding material weakness.

This is called the 'part-time ratio,' and it's a traditional leading indicator of the labor market

I made a short video on this ratio before today's report: youtube.com/watch?v=t3ZJlH…

Today's update showed an improvement in the ratio, but a downtrend remains in the 3M average

It's always surprising how cyclical payroll revisions are.

This chart shows the 12-month rolling average of net nonfarm payroll revisions.

Initial jobless claims continue on a stronger-than-average seasonal trend to end March.