Big jump in airfares, lodging and food away from home! BLS perfectly capture my inflation basket for August! 😅

CPI Inflation Trends: All the major categories that exclude shelter are at 2.0% or lower. Shelter/rent remains the biggest factor keeping inflation above the Fed's target.

If bonds are sustaining rallies even after a hotter-than-expected CPI print that should tell you something.

CPI didn't do much except re-arrange the distribution of cuts a bit - Sep to 25, and the additional premium pushed to 2025 (probably helped by the debate last night as well).

reports of the death of 60/40 have been greatly exaggerated (albeit a bit expensive)

Terrific CPI breakdown from Parker Ross. P&C insurance remains the tip of the post COVID bullwhip that keeps on stinging. I suspect that OER remains elevated due to higher insurance and property taxes, the latter likely keeping OER elevated in the NE.

Warm CPI => bonds flat on the day and stonks up. You can’t make this up. But I’m not complaining.

The latest HaMMR has dropped: "Still a Fighting Chance" • Key Takeaway: August jobs report did not reverse all July weakness; prior softening trends still in place for unemployment and job growth. • Macro Implications: Data in hand unlikely to sway the Fed from 25bps cut next

The morning narrative I loved the most was “mkt not happy Kamala is going to win bro”. But now the mkt doesn’t seem to care about politics (nor do I). Wash rinse repeat through the narrative laundry mat.

The locals call this “un bife de lomo”.

TFW when the guy that built you a bike didn’t give you a cable to charge the Shimano Ultegra Di2 electronic gears. There goes tomorrow’s ride. 🤯😤🤬😡

😂

Brent wins the day 😂

Another new low in mortgage rates.

Shout out to all the Fed staff economists who are checking and rechecking their work on what the benchmark revision will likely yield... August PCE is always the messiest and toughest one to get holistically correct

I feel seen 👀😂 (Minus the books).

Must read for all the deficit doomers.

😂

EconstratPB Bit of nuance to the Panic of 1837. Plummeting cotton + rug pull from the Bank of England also contributed. Granted credit channels to Caterpillar banks could have been arrested with a central bank, reducing land bubble spec. Not sure paying off nat’l debt the main cause though.