“We now expect the Fed to start cutting rates in December. We no longer think policymakers will gain the confidence they need to start cutting in June. 2024 is starting to look like 2015, but in reverse”

BofA’s Mike Gapen

“We now expect only one rate cut this year at the December FOMC meeting followed by modest further reductions in 2025”

Deutsche Bank’s Matt Luzzetti

“we think that unfavorable base effects on inflation in the second half of this year mean that the Fed could be forced to delay the start of any easing cycle to December of this year or March of next year”

BofA sticking with June… for now

“The 3-month annualized change in supercore inflation is now over 8% and accelerating… The 6-month annualized change is 6%, and the year-over-year change is 5%… We are sticking to our view that the Fed will not cut rates in 2024”

Apollo’s Torsten Slok

'Bumps in the road might be the new transitory'

JPMorgan's Priya Misra

'Payrolls up 303k, household survey up 498k, unemployment rate down, wage growth still high... The source of this strength is easy financial conditions... We are sticking to our view that the Fed will not cut interest rates this year'

Apollo's Torsten Slok

A big shift in Jay Powell’s push to get inflation back to 2%

2022: It will require pain
2024: It will require time

Discussed this yesterday on BSurveillance: For a long time the West believed China would want to be more like us. It turns out the Western world is becoming more like China… Good summary of what’s happening here 👇

Tech CEOs: AI is going to enhance your existing job, make you more productive, you’ll work a 3-day week. Promise. It’ll be great.

Everyone else: F***!!!!!!!

Dear F1,

Please stop showing the back of the grid in the first few laps of the race. You are missing everything worth watching. Nobody wants another year of this.

With love,

Everybody

Welcome home DG!

🤌

Record market cap moves

Meta Feb 2: +$196.84bln
Nvidia so far today: +$220bln

Crushed it in London and we all know she’ll crush it in Dubai. Welcome to the team, Jou!!

👇 Fantastic Nikki Haley interview
this morn

Jonathan Ferro annmarie hordern & Lisa Abramowicz raise critical questions on domestic and international issues and stark political reality

Both Biden & Trump shld join BSurveillance on same substantive grounds

'30-second ad during Super Bowl I (1967) was $37,500, price for Super Bowl LVII $7,000,000 = 185x jump; nothing keeps pace with Super Bowl inflation but if they could... 6-pack of beer would be $340, gallon of gasoline $61, avg US house price $4.2mn & S&P500 would be 16374'

BofA

Adam Neumann just totally crushed the ZIRP era. Nobody close.

Pretending NJ is New York and hoping nobody abroad notices is such a Newark Airport move.