Nate Silver(@NateSilver538) 's Twitter Profileg
Nate Silver done

@NateSilver538

Founder, EIC @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (https://t.co/v6tgsFf8gD). Sports/politics/food geek. Not a virologist.

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linkhttp://fivethirtyeight.com/ calendar_today27-08-2008 20:56:45

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Nate Silver(@NateSilver538) 's Twitter Profile Photo

This is such bullshit. It didn't receive literally zero media attention, nor is that the claim. But it got bypassed in the news cycle very quickly. Was no longer the lede news story even the next morning (receipts below).

memeorandum.com/170615/h0915

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Nate Silver(@NateSilver538) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Kind of shocking to me how comparatively little media attention violent attacks against political leaders get, and that runs from the Congressional softball shootings to the attack at the Pelosi household yesterday.

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Nate Silver(@NateSilver538) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Again, my advice is not to donate to any campaign that engages in this sort of misinformation. It's a waste of money at this point in the cycle anyway. Donate to charity instead, or take your family out to a nice dinner, or just save the money. Don't support dishonesty.

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Nate Silver(@NateSilver538) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Do you think the following two statements are true or false?

A) Twitter needs as much or more content moderation as it had pre-Elon.
B) Content moderation decisions pre-Elon had a left-wing/liberal/Democratic bias.

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Nate Silver(@NateSilver538) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Also, there's a lot more regional and race-specific variation in midterms than in presidential years. Even in years where polls/forecasts are basically unbiased, there are always some surprises, e.g. Dems doing terribly in Florida in 2018 despite a good night overall.

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Josh Marshall Yeah this polling is a 9 out of 10 for Dems relative to expectations. It's also a small sample and House races are fluky so doesn't move the topline outlook so much. But NYT has a bad habit of deciding on the narrative *before* doing the reporting and got caught red-handed here.

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Polls aren't perfect, but debate coverage would be 100x better if the media was more reserved about judging public reaction until it had made some even vaguely objective attempt to gauge how the public had reacted.

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I don't know if any of this is actionable and I have better things to do than send a C&D letter but Democratic fundraising emails continue to use my name and 538's in highly misleading ways. Don't donate to campaigns that do this.

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Nate Silver(@NateSilver538) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Focus on rats is kind of weird? I don't recall a single time encountering a rat while dining outdoors in NYC. Nor have I heard stories or jokes about rats from friends. Obviously you'll encounter rats in NYC with some frequency but is this really A Thing?
curbed.com/2022/10/outdooโ€ฆ

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Nate Silver(@NateSilver538) 's Twitter Profile Photo

We've come a long way from 'What's The Matter With Kansas?' to the increasingly common take that voters are silly to be worried about gas prices with <everything else going on>.

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Nate Silver(@NateSilver538) 's Twitter Profile Photo

There was like this 10-day stretch where nearly every poll was a disaster for Democrats but for the past few days, it's been more of a mixed bag. Don't know what to make of it, 'noise' is always a plausible explanation, but maybe the race has stabilized at a new equilibrium.

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Nate Silver(@NateSilver538) 's Twitter Profile Photo

People on here have wildly implausible theories about how and how much the subtleties of New York Times coverage affect the views of some random swing voter in Ohio.

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