🤯

🇺🇲 America Reports with Sandra Smith & John Roberts

On now ....

🎞 💫 👠 Katie Pavlich & Rafael A. Mangual

If you’re free and able, tune-in to America Reports on Fox News at 2pm EST. I’ll be on discussing the bail reform debate in New York.

Be sure to tune-in to America Reports on Fox News today at 2pm EST

No bueno

In his testimony in favor of 'gender affirming care' before the Florida board of medicine, Dr. Aron Janssen (Dr. Aron Janssen) was asked why Europe has taken a more 'conservative' approach than we have.

A quick fact check thread:

/The End/

Now if any of those reading this are interested in a more complete presentation of the arguments against decarceration and depolicing (and why these initiatives will disproportionately harm low-income minority communities), please consider reading my book: centerstreet.com/titles/rafael-…

Now you can certainly try to defend depolicing and decarceration from public safety-focused critiques. I don’t think that’s a winning strategy; but you do you. What you can’t do, however, is pretend that measures of incarceration and policing are not declining.

The fact that one of the most robust and consistent findings in the criminological literature can be fairly summarized as “More policing means less crime, and vice versa,” tells us a bit about the inadvisability of depolicing as a policy initiative.

The fact that prison is already largely reserved for chronic repeat offenders who are (a) serving time primarily for violent and weapons offenses (see below), and (b) very likely to reoffend only just begins to scratch the surface of why decarceration is inadvisable.

bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pd… (finding that 83% of released prisoners were rearrested at least once (an avg of 4.9 arrests) over 9-yr period).

bjs.ojp.gov/sites/g/files/… (finding that 71% of released prisoners were rearrested at least once (an avg of 2.7 arrests) over 5 years)

Charts above are from the following cohort studies:

bjs.ojp.gov/BJS_PUB/rpr24s… (finding that 82% of released prisoners were rearrested at least once (an avg of 5.3 arrests) over 10 years)

In support of 2., consider that studies of recidivism among released state prisoners (who account for ~89% of all U.S. prisoners) consistently show that these individuals (a) have ~10 prior arrests and ~5 prior convictions, and (b) ~80+% of them will reoffend over 10yrs.

Again—this is just a sampling. Now, one might argue that these benefits aren’t worth whatever costs one thinks policing imposes; but that is separate and apart from the question of whether policing reduces crime—a question whose answer is quite clearly “YES.”

researchgate.net/publication/23… (a meta analysis finding that both hot spots and problem oriented policing strategies reduce crime)

researchgate.net/publication/28… (finding significant crime-reduction effects of Terry Stops at crime hotspots)