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Richard Murphy

@RichardJMurphy

Economic justice campaigner. Professor of Accounting Practice, Sheffield University. Chartered accountant. Political economist. Opinions all my own.

calendar_today23-01-2008 10:47:19

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Fourth, landlords are not alone in passing on interest costs. Many businesses are financed by debt and pay a lot in interest. The bank seems to assume markets set prices and so businesses can’t pass their costs one, but large ones (most especially) can, and do.

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And let’s not pretend that people who have their disposable income pushed down don’t try to recover that lost income. We know that they do, even if the Bank of England has been quite clear in their instruction to them not to do so.

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And employers then pass on wage rises, even if (as in most cases) the increase in wage costs is less than the inflation rate reflected in business prices. So, interest rate increases reinforce inflation, yet again.

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And then we shouldn’t forget that some people are made better off by interest rate rises. Many savers see their income go up as a result, and most of them will not be borrowers. So they have more to spend as a result of the Bank’s actions.

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What is more, because savers also have money in reserve they can dig into those funds to pay increased prices if they still want to spend - and because of their increased income, plus the expectation that prices will only increase if they don’t do so now - that’s what they do.

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I could keep going. My point is that all the assumptions that the Bank makes on the impact of interest rate rises appear to be based on what economics text books say, and the relationship between economics textbooks and reality ceased a long time ago.

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It is my suggestion that the Bank of England has not only got their assumptions wrong, they are so blinkered that they cannot see that it is their own interest rate rises that are now stopping inflation falling by creating an upward inflationary cycle.

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And we do know the Bank has got their assumptions wrong. They have, for example, already had to abandon their models for forecasting inflation because, as they have admitted, they simply do not work.

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Getting your model wrong is one thing. Getting your policy wrong is something else when that policy has real-world implications, and they are the opposite of what you intend. That, I suggest is what is happening right now. Interest rate rises are creating inflation.

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This would not matter if everyone (businesses, households, and international economies) suffered inflation at the same rate. But they don’t. Inflation is making most people in the UK poorer right now, and some a lot richer. And it is making us poorer compared to other countries.

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