Interest rates matter, especially rising rates when the stocks/bonds correlation is positive. So far, the 10-year yield has once again risen to the stock market’s “uncle” point, and this has happened without a rise in the term premium. The last time bond yields caused stocks to…

In my view, the stock market remains in both a cyclical and secular bull market. Based on the median cyclical bull market (which has produced a 90% rally over 30 months), we are only in the 4th or 5th inning, but compared to the shorter bull markets that were produced during the…

Following the sticky March CPI report, the market has now unpivoted close to 100 bps since the start of the year. The 2-year yield, which is a good proxy for where the market thinks the Fed will be in two years, has swung from 4.15% in January to 5.0% today. Remarkable, but…

The S&P 500 equal-weighted index is back below the all-time high set in March, and the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average is down to 37% (from 85%). Not quite at an oversold extreme.