Pretty impressive measurements out of the station north of Eugene Island, #Louisiana from #HurricaneFrancine- ~975 mb, gusts over 100 mph

The last 8 runs ending with today’s 12z #GFS shows increasing likelihood of a #tropicalstorm forming off the coast of #NorthCarolina next Monday. Areas like #Wilmington #WrightsvilleBeach could be impacted by compound #flooding from surge and rain. #NCwx #Tropicswx

Not a massive signal in the 12z ensembles but any sort of weak tropical storm would bring a flood risk to the SE US so definitely worth monitoring over the weekend. Next name is #Helene.

12Z #GFS is still showing the potential for #TropicalStormHelene in 48 hours affecting #NorthCarolina and much of the Mid-Atlantic. Several gauges showing forecasts for moderate flooding over the next few days; some of the same areas will also receive heavy rainfall- #flood risk

Spin up is occurring for #95L/#AL95 - serious lightning near the potential core. 12Z #FV3 showing some extreme rain over the next 2 days for #NC. #GFS showing more of a local rain maxima in #SC. Next 24 hours should be interesting, might get a weak #TropicalStormHelene.

12 #GEFS and satellite imagery suggesting the potential for a tropical storm to affect #Charleston #SC to #Wilmington #NC tomorrow. An anomalously warm Gulf Stream should support cyclogenesis over next 12 hours as shear remains manageable. Surge + rain #flood risk. #SCwx #NCwx

5 pm update from NHC brought us #PTC8 which is expected to become #TropicalStorm #Helene. 18Z #GFS #HRRR still forecasting a ton of rain between #MyrtleBeach SC + #Wilmington NC. IR Satellite showing plentiful convection firing over warm Gulf Stream waters #NCwx #SCwx

Some minor and moderate #flooding already in #Wilmington NC #MyrtleBeach and #Charleston SC... onshore flow from #PTC8/#Helene is bring 2 feet of surge to these Carolina Beaches... next high tide could exceed these values depending on timing and location of storm landfall

About an hour ago, buoy 41013 off #NorthCarolina experienced sustained winds of 40 mph and just clocked a 7 mb drop in pressure during a 3 hour period thanks to #PTC8 / #Helene. Cape Lookout sustained wind speed now up to 34 mph. #NCwx

The convection of #PTC8 is looking more organized and the pressure is dropping but it very asymmetric and frontal. It has 3 hours or so before landfall to reach tropical storm classification. 2+ ft surge/wind gusts of 50+ mph/6+ inches of rain will impact NC regardless of name.

Extremely intense convection just off the coast of #CarolinaBeach #NorthCarolina. Winds are now gusting to 45 mph in #Wilmington. #PTC8 #Helene #NCwx #Tropicswx

This last second gasp at landfall for #PTC8 is giving vibes like it got vertically stacked over the last 30 mins. I would say it’s a subtropical / tropical storm but regardless of title, #Wrightsville NC just got a 67 mph gust; over 300 lightning measurements near #Wilmington

These 24 hour rainfall totals for SE #NorthCarolina are pretty shocking- locally 15+ inches already recorded- significant #flood risk thanks to #PTC8 #NCwx