Meanwhile Trump plans to speak to striking auto workers.

Tim Scott, asked about auto strikes, praises past firing of striking federal workers

SCOTT: “I think Ronald Reagan gave us a great example when federal employees decided they were going to strike. He said, you strike, you’re fired. Simple concept to me.” nbcnews.com/politics/2024-…

I very much like this reporting. Listening to candidates at some length is revealing at this point in the cycle. What Katherine Miller is saying is that the other candidates are boring - something Trump never was.

The following things are true:
1. Democratic voters ARE worried about Biden's age and want another choice.
2. Biden's approval ratings have nothing to do with his age.
3. In polling Biden's numbers among Dems are as good as Trump's are in Republicans.

Polling is pretty consistent: concerns about Trump's age outside of Republicans are as significant as they are among Democrats.

This isn't an answer, and in '76 the GOP had as bitter a primary fight as any party has had and still nearly won. Kennedy hurt Carter some in '80 but Carter's approval rating was terrible and he would have lost anyway.

Something to watch:
Pew '20 validated voter poll: Dems 34, GOP 29
Emerson D 37, GOP 36
Fox, D 41, GOP 43
Quinnipiac D 30, GOP 29
CNN D 32, GOP 32
The major pollsters are finding partisan splits different from what we saw in '20. It's not just 1 pollster.
Non-response bias?

There is virtually no difference between Harris's numbers and Biden.

Spending in TX/CA/NY home to roughly 90 million: 0.
The combined population of the states below is roughly 62 million.

The median income last year was $74,580 compared with $76,330 in 2021, according to the Census Bureau.

The 2.3% drop in incomes was the most since 2010.

It was the third-straight annual decline.

Two points from a NH Democrat and local officeholder:
1. Democrats are not 'Furious' about losing NH's spot on the calendar - most of the statements I KNOW are performative.
2. There will be a significant write-in effort, and that effort will win significantly.

If inflation recedes over the next 12 months and a recession is avoided I do not believe the race will be within 5.
That is one big if.

Quinnipiac REALLY leaned right in '22. Their last job approval poll for Biden was 36-54. The exit poll average (there were 2) was 43.5). The sample looks suspicious: GOP 30/Dem 20. Quinnipiac's record since '16 has been awful.
poll.qu.edu/poll-release?r…

From a political perspective Nate is right. The recent trend in consumer sentiment is encouraging - but it has a long way to go.

Explain the Surplus labor theory.

Among other things, the FBI has a unit that specializes in arresting serial killers.

Essentially the GOP in WI is caving and the threat to impeach the recently elected Supreme Court Justice appears over.

A good thing. I see it in my community.

I'm not sure what people aren't getting. The trends reversed pretty recently and '22 was a bad year.

Biden's age is an issue. So is Trump's. There is no getting around it.