.Alberto Cavallo Santiago Alvarez Blaser Alex MacKay and Paolo Mengano find that the total US markup of prices over production costs was stable over June 2018-June 2023. Increased production costs rather than markups explain soaring retail prices during 2022. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

.BLS-Labor Statistics projects that jobs in the top wage quartile will grow by 8.9% per year from 2023-33, over 3X the rate for bottom-quartile jobs. Jed Kolko notes this is a shift from the pre-pandemic period. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Torsten Sløk conducts a simulation with the Fed’s FRBUS model and concludes that two years of Fed cuts with a terminal rate of 3% will likely cause peak inflation to rise by 1 pp and peak GDP by 2% vs. the Fed’s baseline forecast. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

.Charles Murray argues that our highest educational priority should be identifying students in the top 0.5% of cognitive ability and channeling them to elite schools in STEM fields. The top 0.5% of the US working-age population is ~650,000. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

.@cremieux notes that if the US had 0.25 ppts lower quarterly growth since 1947, 2023 US GDP/capita would have been on a par with today's Italy, not 115% higher. "Once one starts to think about economic growth, it is hard to think about anything else." edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Ed Glaeser AEI Economics notes “Per capita, there was less than half as much permitting in 2023 as in 2003 or 1973”, and argues that Federal transportation funding should be conditional on state actions to remove barriers to new home construction. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

.San Francisco Fed analysts forecast that CPI shelter inflation will decline from 5.1% in July ‘24 to its pre-pandemic average of 3.3% in spring ‘25, based on trends in new units under construction and completed, net household formation, and rents on new leases. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

The share of lending in the form of “private credit” has grown dramatically since the financial crisis. Private credit may now be a $1.5 trillion industry that is at least as large as the syndicated loans market. Jared Ellias and Elisabeth de Fontenay edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

According to a Treasury analysis of new US business applications, many to establish firms with a high propensity to hire employees, remain 50% above the pre-pandemic period. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Since the end of 2020, net immigration has lifted the US population by 9 million people, contributing to annual population growth of 1.2%, the highest since the early 1990s. The bulk of the 6.5mm net illegal immigrants came across the southern border. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Peter Oppenheimer argues for "Tech's rational exuberance," noting the median PE and EC/Sales of the 7 largest tech firms are ~ half of those seen in the tech bubble. But the capital-intensive AI buildout “threatens to stifle the high rates of return.” edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Bruce Meyer finds that when recipients of a variety of US government assistance programs complete Census Bureau surveys, they significantly underreport program participation. Black and Hispanic recipients show the highest rates of underreporting. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Only ~ 50% of American adults are currently married, down from 72% in 1960. Brad Wilcox notes that children raised in single-parent families, “are about 4 times more likely to be poor, compared to those raised in married families.” edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

.Joey Politano 🏳️‍🌈 cites 18 House Republicans' efforts to protect clean energy tax credits in the IRA from repeal and argues that spending from the infrastructure bill, IRA, and CHIPS Act may create a coalition inside the GOP to protect these bills. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

.Clifford Asness notes large and prolonged swings in US stock market valuations since 1990, and contends that the market has become “less informationally efficient.” He advocates having “the longest time horizon possible” to wait out bubbles. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Initial production yields at TSMC's Arizona facility are on par with the yields at comparable Taiwanese fabs. There have been concerns about the efficiency of their US facilities due to a lack of skilled workers. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Noting “Harris is underperforming in swing states relative to her national numbers” (she is up 3pp nationally.) Nate Silver gives Trump a 61.7% chance of winning PA and a 61.5% chance of winning the electoral college. The first debate is Tuesday. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…

Researchers at MIT MIT Media Lab found that after viewing a video of a simulated crime, participants who were asked misleading questions by an AI chatbot generated 3x more false memories than a control group. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…