Affan(@feynzz) 's Twitter Profileg
Affan

@feynzz

Chartered Accountant/Trader/Investor. I invest based on fundamentals only. Addicted to Free Cash Flow. Views are my own, DYOR.

ID:115224698

calendar_today18-02-2010 00:51:22

7,7K Tweets

3,3K Followers

220 Following

Affan(@feynzz) 's Twitter Profile Photo

trading up gradually every day. Looking much better ahead of results next month. Think this goes much higher.

DYOR

account_circle
Affan(@feynzz) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Gold making a move, now $1980oz which makes the valuation here looks even more ridiculous.

Highly illiquid so not for everyone. DYOR

account_circle
Affan(@feynzz) 's Twitter Profile Photo

On this subject, according to Sharepad, it will have net cash of $205m in Dec 2025 (2 years time). This is almost 2x the current market cap 🤷‍♂️

The market obviously doesn't believe it (yet).

DYOR

#THX On this subject, according to Sharepad, it will have net cash of $205m in Dec 2025 (2 years time). This is almost 2x the current market cap 🤷‍♂️ The market obviously doesn't believe it (yet). DYOR
account_circle
Affan(@feynzz) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Shares have come down a long way. Minimal net debt now, Mcap £98m for a 85k-100koz producer. If you believe forecasts then could have net cash of $96m (£80m) by Dec-24. Mispriced or what? 🤷‍♂️

account_circle
Affan(@feynzz) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Solid trading update as expected. The group expects to report EBITDA growth ahead of market expectations. Solid cash generation and divi. Seem to be doing rather well in this tough macro environment.

DYOR

account_circle
Affan(@feynzz) 's Twitter Profile Photo

PGMs starting to turn. Nice move in Iridium and Rhodium over the last week. PGMs profitable again. £100m PAT forecast on current prices and FY23 production guidance. EV is c$90m.

Postponing Karo provides capex flexibility. Expect final divi of 2.5-3c.

DYOR

#THS PGMs starting to turn. Nice move in Iridium and Rhodium over the last week. PGMs profitable again. £100m PAT forecast on current prices and FY23 production guidance. EV is c$90m. Postponing Karo provides capex flexibility. Expect final divi of 2.5-3c. DYOR
account_circle
Affan(@feynzz) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Their obsession with Karo is hard for me to comprehend. Delaying by another year would surely mean increase in capex but company not commented on that.

But what would you pay for Tharisa Mine that generates $100m plus FCF p.a. on a EV of $85m?

So much potential yet..

account_circle
Affan(@feynzz) 's Twitter Profile Photo

extending Karo commissioning by a year to June 2025 in light of unfavourable PGM market. Clearly focusing on producing chrome vs PGMs atm with chrome production up 10% QoQ and PGMS down 20%. Net Cash of $126m vs Mkt Cap of $230m. EV c$104m atm. PGMs b/e, chrome $120m p.a.

account_circle
Affan(@feynzz) 's Twitter Profile Photo

So Canacol exercised its warrants and will hold. Great news. One more week till warrants expire. Any guesses what happens to the sp after that? 🤔

account_circle
Affan(@feynzz) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Done rather well in the worst quarter of the year (in terms of river levels). They can produce over 20k bopd. River levels expected to normalise in the next month or so. The cash will keep piling up. $90m+ already debt free with a $500m market cap.

account_circle
Affan(@feynzz) 's Twitter Profile Photo

basket price up $120/oz this week. Significant but needs a bit more momentum.

Sub £200m market cap for a company with last reported net asset value of $620m. Need a solid production update on Tuesday. Chrome $295/t.

account_circle
Affan(@feynzz) 's Twitter Profile Photo

UK energy security is essential. Events like sabotage on the Finnish gas pipeline go on to show how stupid the current UK govt is to tax its own industry to infinity.

More volatility in the O&G market

account_circle