To keep below 1.5°C, with a 50-50 chance, would require global CO2 emissions to be zero in ~2038 (orange line).

The other scenarios (blue) overshoot to ~1.6°C before going back <1.5°C in 2100 (& they start with a global carbon price in 2020).

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Which countries extract the most carbon from the ground (coal, oil, gas)?

robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2023/extrac…

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While we expect the permafrost region to be a significant GHG source as the planet warms, we know little about the region's current net GHG balance

Justin Ramage et al. have just done that, a full analysis of sources and sinks of CO2, CH4, and N2O fluxes for 2000-2020

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First-of-its-kind global analysis

Size, distribution, and vulnerability of the global soil inorganic carbon.

Outstanding work by Yuanyuan Huang ++

Just published:
science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…

Learn more about how intensity and frequency of rainfall affects terrestrial ecosystem producitivity by Andrew Feldman review & what is expected in future -> webhost.essic.umd.edu/april-showers-…

We now have three estimates of fossil CO2 emissions growth in 2023:
* 1.1% from GlobalCarbonProject in December 2023 essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/53…
* 1.1% from International Energy Agency in March 2024 iea.org/reports/co2-em…
* 0.1% from Carbon Monitor in Feb & April 2024 nature.com/articles/s4301…

Figure from GCB

We are hiring 2 motivated young research scientists LSCE IPSL Paris & INRAE Bordeaux to work on African forests with 🛰️, 🌳, 💻, #AI in the One Forest Vision research program between African countries & France

LSCE: bit.ly/3JbuGuo
INRAE: bit.ly/3xqcb2t

NOAA has published its first estimate of the growth in global-average CO₂ concentration for 2023, at +2.81 ppm. GlobalCarbonProject's forecast was 2.4 ppm, the average of a time-series analysis giving 2.39 and an ESM multi-model mean giving 2.41. Let's unpack this.

Ah, this just published paper on ‘least cost’ mitigation with Thomas Bossy Katsumasa Tanaka 田中 克政 ( with costs ‘emulators)

Least-cost 2°C-compliant mitigation pathways robust to physical uncertainty, economic paradigms, and intergenerational cost distribution

doi.org/10.1088/2752-5…

Ingeborg Levin science.org/doi/10.1126/sc… by Felix Vogel & S.Hammer🙏🏽Ingeborg measured her contributions by the laboratories she helped establish & the crucial role she played in launching ICOS & building a global community through her decades-long international collaborations

Coastal ocean might be a more efficient CO2 sink than the open ocean, as we found in our new paper led by Moritz Mathis. Find out why here👇
nature.com/articles/s4155…
@[email protected] CEN Uni Hamburg @cenunihh.bsky.social Universität Hamburg
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Please repost
I am looking to fill positions in my group at Universität Hamburg
👉Postdoc examining ocean carbon storage under abrupt events during the last deglaciation
uni-hamburg.de/stellenangebot…
👉Postdoc developing the ocean carbon cycle in emission-driven ICON ESM
uni-hamburg.de/stellenangebot…

Five more days to submit abstracts for the ICDC11.
Deadline: 15 March

11th International Carbon Dioxide Conference Manaus, Brazil

eventos.galoa.com.br/icdc-2024/page…

What is it about Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that means coal use persists, & even resurge, in Paris-compliant scenarios?
* They love CCS: optimistic cost & deployment assumptions
* They love coal: Coal dependency goes up

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…

GlobalCarbonProject

Time for a check-up 🌍

The annual assessment of Earth’s carbon cycle found that burning oil, coal, and natural gas is impeding progress to limit climate change. Both 2023 and 2022 saw record increases in carbon dioxide from fossil fuels.

go.nasa.gov/48Iznpx

Emergent complexity is fascinating, but emergent simplicity is often more useful. I am blown away by the linearity between cumulative emissions and global warming that we see even in the most complex Earth System Models! Global Systems Institute Met Office Science doi.org/10.1038/s41467…