the fundamentals are moving into very light lean biden territory

More good work from the Split Ticket team

there’s still enough time to pass a constitutional amendment to let rishi sunak be trump’s vp

Something intuitive about the least engaged and most disillusioned elements of the country being the most sour on the incumbent president. Question is whether there's a tipping point for actualizing this sentiment into something electorally useful.

Because of the role that luck plays in determining close political outcomes, Performance Above Replacement Analyst (PARA) for a partisan pundit is close to +0.2 in the short term. However, like in financial markets, over the long term their skill usually reverts to the negative

I think loudly predicting that Biden will win is a positive expected value gamble for a pundit, but it's pretty clear here that there's no empirical basis for Rosenberg's confidence.

Yes if these are the numbers on Election Day and we have even a historically trivial amount of polling bias, Biden would win. That’s why we keep saying the race is a toss-up

New Interview: I talked to the Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg about why he thinks Biden isn’t currently losing to Trump, whether he and the White House are too optimistic about the state of the campaign, and why he doesn’t like poll averages. newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/i…

EG, most of these people apparently believe that Unnamed Democrat's numbers with Black voters would magically improve after Biden steps down and the party nominates a new Pres candidate not named Kamala Harris. This strikes me as hard to believe

Yeah, this is the big hangup. You can do actual analysis on this question and the verdict is never as positive as the people who want Biden to step down let on

Alito has the chance to do the funniest thing ever

lol best of luck man economist.com/interactive/uk…

my own angle on this: weighted average annual growth in 6 economic indicators over the last 2 years is now half a standard deviation above the historical average (from 1952), something that would predict a ~1pp win for the incumbent president. but biden is down 1 in the averages