Jay Kaeppel(@jaykaeppel) 's Twitter Profileg
Jay Kaeppel

@jaykaeppel

Jay is Senior Market Analyst at https://t.co/BNBZdQZHaj and author of Seasonal Stock Market Trends (Wiley). Trader, writer, instructor and former CTA.

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calendar_today24-06-2010 14:21:32

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Jay Kaeppel(@jaykaeppel) 's Twitter Profile Photo

This is a gem from Larry Williams. Human nature says: 'Stick with it. Be optimistic. Never give up.'
ALL of that is 100% wrong (IMO) in the markets. Instead, assume the worst case and plan what you'll do if that unfolds. Completely counterintuitive and the keys to the kingdom.

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ABOVE red line = GOOD
BELOW red line = BAD
Jay’s Trading Maxim #7: Trading doesn’t have to be rocket science. In fact, it doesn’t even have to be sophisticated.
Lesson #515. SentimenTrader

ABOVE red line = GOOD BELOW red line = BAD Jay’s Trading Maxim #7: Trading doesn’t have to be rocket science. In fact, it doesn’t even have to be sophisticated. Lesson #515. @sentimentrader
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Silver is testing its 50-day moving average. I have no “prediction” (would it matter if I did?), BUT whether it holds or folds we are about to receive an important clue. Paying close attention here. SentimenTrader

Silver is testing its 50-day moving average. I have no “prediction” (would it matter if I did?), BUT whether it holds or folds we are about to receive an important clue. Paying close attention here. @sentimentrader
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The stuff I follow is still bullish, so I am still bullish. I do see valid concerns arising re valuation, breadth, economy, etc. My response:
Jay’s Trading Maxim #37: Recognizing the trend right now is worth far more than a thousand predictions regarding what will happen next.

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Wow, what a terrific quote regarding the human condition. Succinct and 100% accurate. And nowhere is this more true than in the financial markets. Welcome to the jungle...

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I am NOT 'predicting' an imminent reversal in this relationship. I am, however, taking this as an opportunity to once again invoke and remind:
Jay’s Trading Maxim #40: Remember, no style, sector or index EVER holds a permanent advantage.
SentimenTrader

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Does weak seasonality mean SPY will decline in the weeks ahead? Nope.
But, should we be surprised if it does? Also nope. SentimenTrader

Does weak seasonality mean SPY will decline in the weeks ahead? Nope. But, should we be surprised if it does? Also nope. @sentimentrader
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Jay’s Trading Maxim #7: Investing doesn’t have to be rocket science. In fact, it doesn’t even necessarily have to be sophisticated.

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An excellent opportunity to invoke:
Jay’s Trading Maxim #13: There’s always a bull market somewhere. Our job as investors is to find it.

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Jay’s Trading Maxim #40: Remember, no style, sector or index EVER holds a permanent advantage.
In the financial markets there's an ebb and flow to EVERYTHING. If you're thinking that that’s no longer true, pay close attention – because things are probably about to change.

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Energies have seen a pullback in an uptrend. A classic setup. BUT seasonality strongly suggests looking for better opportunities elsewhere. Decisions, decisions. SentimenTrader

Energies have seen a pullback in an uptrend. A classic setup. BUT seasonality strongly suggests looking for better opportunities elsewhere. Decisions, decisions. @sentimentrader
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There is no guarantee that 'Phase 4' plays out as drawn at the far right of this chart. That said, given the potential for a significant move, I am watching this one very closely. Unfortunately, some patience is apparently required...

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