'The global cyclicals vs defensives relative performance line recently capped out at the top end of its trend channel — this is something that signaled 3 major market peaks over the past decade.' entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-the… by Topdown Charts

'Statistically, the current set of market conditions looks more 'like' a major bull market peak than any point in the past century, with the possible exception of the 1929 peak.' hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc2405… by John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

'You have technologies that are going out on the road and you are asking the public to take part in testing without their consent.' washingtonpost.com/transportation…

'Natural gas is expected to supply 60% of the power demand growth from AI and data centers. Gas demand could increase by 10 bcf/d by 2030, a 28% increase over the 35 bcf/d that is currently consumed for electricity generation in the US.' cnbc.com/2024/05/05/ai-…

'The flow of gold to China has gone from solid to an absolute torrent.' nytimes.com/2024/05/05/bus…

'13 economies across the developed world were in per-capita recessions at the end of last year. Housing shortages and associated cost-of-living strains are a common thread.' bloomberg.com/news/features/…

Retail investors snap up triple-leveraged US equity ETFs ft.com/content/d0623a…

'Energy-transition fatigue is setting in. Three-quarters of energy consumers say they have already done as much as they can to be sustainable, according to a survey of 100,000 people over 20 countries by the research arm of accounting firm Ernst & Young.' wsj.com/science/enviro…

'The dollar has formed a sideways consolidation and should it break down it would send a few bearish messages to the US Dollar… and perhaps a bullish one to precious metals.' kimblechartingsolutions.com/2024/05/u-s-do… by Chris Kimble

'Berkshire Hathaway's cash pile swelled to a record $189bn in the first quarter of 2024 as Warren Buffett's sprawling conglomerate continued to dump stocks, including Apple, one of its largest positions.' ft.com/content/a3e253…

'Among the S&P 500 companies that issued guidance through April, 15% provided an outlook that exceeded estimates, the second-lowest reading since the pandemic.' bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

'A small, but growing number on Wall Street argue that the interest paid on Treasuries is creating a material wealth effect, with the extra cash acting like stimulus checks supporting the surprisingly resilient economy.' bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

'Xi has spent the last two years sanction-proofing the Chinese economy by all means possible, securing massive supplies of oil and gas and buying up gold on a scale that is astonishing even by Chinese standards.' telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/…

China's stock market has an earnings yield that is 7 percentage points higher than its bond yields. In contrast, the US offers 7 basis points more than bonds. Value investors, take note.

Unemployed persons has now increased by >10%. Historically a 💯 reliable signal of more to come. Thats bullish bonds. Welcome to E-town. #hopE #macro

Wow - Lumber is all the way back to 2019 levels

Buffett on selling Apple shares: “I don’t mind at all (given current the current economic environment) building our cash position.”
$BRK already had $182b in cash at end of Q1, and Buffett estimates it will be ~$200b soon. 😳

I suggest J. Powell to consider this indicator for the “stag”, and the recent surge in commodities or gold for the “flation”.

Every time unemployment rates have crossed above its 24-month moving average, it marked the beginning of a significant deterioration in labor markets.

Remember, anyone betting on a soft landing is betting that the unemployment rate will simply move sideways from very low levels.

It’s never happened before.

$HSI $KWEB $FXI $MCHI
The Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong) is now up 9 days in a row. Last time was Jan 2018. Only 21 events since 1964.
Avg 1 year return = 28.5%
Avg 1 year drawdown = 10.1%
Avg 1 Year max gain = 54.6%
See more data in table...