EXCLUSIVE: Trump is gathering MAGA diehards and state officials for a series of meetings on how to challenge the results of midterm elections if they lose. trib.al/5puDKjU

This is an intervention. Stop looking at early vote numbers. You will end up statistically worse off (and less informed!) for it. Spend time with your families. Enjoy the last days of warm weather. The votes will be there on election night, I promise, and only then will we know.

It's really quite simple, folks.

About 20,000 votes so far have been broken down by party in NV.

That is likely less than 2 percent of what the turnout will be. Conclusion-jumping is a hazardous practice. Don't do it yet!

Just read the blog -- and I will update later or in AM.

Only 18k votes today in Georgia, which is unsurprising as many counties don't offer Sunday early voting at this time. But a MASSIVE Black overperformance when compared to previous cycles. We are now close to 840k votes and Black voters make up 32.8% of the electorate. #GApol

Even a cursory study of any existing literature on politics and political psychology will immediately tell you that voters do not pay much attention to politics, and especially political media

Just did it: politickingetc.substack.com/p/hypothesis-t…

As I've mentioned before, ethnic identity used to be a highly salient issue for White voters. For example, FDR's opposition to Nazi Germany caused a substantial number of German-Americans to defect to the GOP in the 1940 election.

Remember that 2018 happened with a *good* economy and Rs lost the generic ballot by 8 just by being generally annoying. Imagine how bad it will be when the economy *also* gets destroyed by their policies.

To give you an idea of how sleepy this statewide election is shaping up to be in California, there were approximately four people who knew that a #CAGov debate was happening and three of them happened to be the moderator and the two candidates.

A few thoughts on this (and in general the 'Why are there so many R-leaning pollsters compared to usual in the average' question):

Another very slow day in Clark County -- only 5,464 had showed up by 3 PM to vote in person. (23K showed up on Day 2 in 2020.) This is where Dems need to build a firewall, so they better hope the mail ballots are hugely in their favor (as they were in 2020) or it's red wave time.