Nate Silver "ahead" does not equal "favored" Nate. As someone with a background in sports betting I'd have thought you knew better. Guess not. I get to tap the sign all year. realcarlallen.substack.com/p/im-tapping-t…

Presenting my findings to ppl with early access, one response: "Seems easy to understand that a pollster can back their ass into the spread in ways that have nothing to do with accuracy" Easy FOR YOU to understand (maybe assisted by the book) Clearly too advanced for experts

The actual population is D 45 R 45 Idk 10 But idks split 60/40 for D, which results in D gain 6 R gain 4 But existing methods ASSUME undecided must split 50/50 (D gain 5, R gain 5) What happens? Result D51 R49 Poll A graded as perfect Poll B "off by 4 big error"

I understand that saying "my work is better" can come across as arrogant or otherwise egoistic. Not where I'm coming from I'm standing on a building, dropping an egg and watermelon, observing they hit the ground at the same time While experts say "Heavy objects fall faster"

Sidenote: With mental health receiving increased attention, rightly, as a public health issue It's worth mentioning that sports betting is currently advertising and running their business in a way AGGRESSIVELY driving people to get addicted National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) x.com/RealCarlAllen/…

To the 9 ppl who follow me for it, I'm still posting TD props this yr Last yr: realcarlallen.substack.com/p/my-sports-be… Unlike Silver, I do not believe past performance is always predictive of future results Run that got me inducted into the sports betting HOF here: x.com/RealCarlAllen/…

La creencia de que el presidente puede estar por encima de la ley.. Es la creencia de REPUBLICANOS y opuesta por las DEMÓCRATAS ¿Cree que un presidente puede estar por encima de la ley? Maduro cree que sí Castro lo creyó Y ahora Trump Vota en consecuencia por favor

Educators: if you want to have my book in your classroom - and if your class is related to poll data or statistics, you probably do - Please go here @ your relevant dept or dept chair please Thanks! routledge.com/textbooks/eval…

This is not what polling error is, either But he doesn't care to hear that - which is why he blocked me

Week 1 NFL TDs J Hill +750 2 +10000 0.5u Agholor +850 2u Perine +1000 2u 2 +15000 1u Gray +1000 2u 2 +14000 0.5u Moore +1900 3u

a picture of the guy who says shootings are a "fact of life"

Note Republicans aren't making excuses about how we need armed security after this school shooting There's only one reasonable solution We must arm the children The only way to stop a bad student with a gun is a good student with a gun More guns is always the answer NRA