The RBA’s next move is still highly likely to be a cut. ANZ_Research #5in5

This also offers hope that the world might adapt to at least some of migration that will accompany #ClimateChange . Immigration boom helps boost growth in rich countries, says OECD ft.com/content/054977… via @ft Delphine Strauss Sam Fleming (FT)

The Fed holds but is asymmetric. No hikes. Just assessing the timing for cuts. #5in5 ANZ_Research

China isn’t unleashing its consumers because it probably can’t: debt is already high and their number is falling. Why Xi Jinping is afraid to unleash China’s consumers ft.com/content/35471c… via @ft Joe Leahy

Mid-cycle slowdowns are #InterestRatePurgatory

Immigration: 'almost everything looks better in Anglophone countries.' The Anglosphere has an advantage on immigration ft.com/content/c6bb73… via @ft John Burn-Murdoch

It's not easy to find uplifting climate stories. This is one. Making EVs takes a major environmental toll — but battery recycling is turning the math on its head bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via Bloomberg Green

And China. 'America’s population also moves around a lot. When population is growing that is not a problem. In a slower demographic regime it becomes a zero sum game....The change will be wrenching. '
Hat tip Adam Tooze
economist.com/briefing/2024/…

The year of elections hasn't been the year of surprises, so far. ANZ_Research
anz.com/institutional/…

The bond market “can intimidate everybody”. #5in5

For those interested, here is my full piece. rb.gy/1qpn9p

I wish it were different.

The end of semiconductor-led deflation. 'for linear improvement in model performance...you need exponentially more data. At some point, chasing model gains through scale only becomes economically infeasible. Diminishing marginal returns strikes again.'
From Exponential View 🔮

The end of semiconductor-led deflation. TSMC plans to charge customers more for chips made outside Taiwan ft.com/content/ef8e2d… via @ft Kathrin Hille

Interest rate purgatory continues. Fed, BOE and RBNZ all facing hawkish news this week. But the ECB set to cut in June. Australian employment out today next to throw up information.

In today's #5in5withANZ : Inflation concerns in UK and NZ; #Oil down 3%; European Central Bank seen on track for June cut; Four reasons why the #USDollar is so strong. FYI @anz_research Richard Yetsenga 叶森 🇦🇺 🇭🇰 🇹🇭 🇳🇱 youtube.com/watch?v=fz2QQl…