A little reference guide for @ukandeu Seats to watch and declaration times. ukandeu.ac.uk/general-electi…

Here's a longer thread on just some of the challenges I think there are to interpretation tomorrow night. Please do add if you think I've missed anything.

The story of the night (so far)

Seats declared minute-by-minute up until 7am...

Minute-by-minute #GE2024 declarations. Final version (🤞).

Decent writethrough of recent polls on Harris vs Biden vs Trump. No strong differences in the national polling (and the Fox/Marist tables for other possible Dem candidates suggest the same for Newsom/Whitmer) nbcnews.com/politics/2024-… Once the article gets into NBCs polling of

We are happy to release the first results of a RCT of a US program that provided $1,000/month unconditionally for 3 years to 1,000 individuals in the treatment group, with a group of 2,000 people receiving $50/month serving as the control. These are sizable transfers. 1/ 🧵

🧵 Two months ago today, we released our final voting intention poll of the General Election. Today we are releasing the findings of our early investigations into where we think our polls did well, and where we want to improve for next time...

📣 NEW Joseph Rowntree Foundation & Loughborough University Minimum Income Standard is out - the definitive guide to what the public thinks is needed for a minimum acceptable standard of living in the UK today. A couple of stand out things for me:

Three myths busted about the last 15 years: - pensioners’ incomes have risen faster than those of working-age people. ❌ - far fewer owning their own home than in 2010.❌ - income and wage inequality have increased ❌