Because this periodically comes up, I'll take advantage of the fact that we have new CPS-ASEC for 2023 data to update some graphs on homeownership (and grind an axe that bugs me about the discourse). The TLDR: homeownership rates for prime aged adults really have declined a lot.

I think there's every reason to just wait and see what happens.

I see way too many people 4d-chessing themselves into 'actually, you'd rather be the highly disliked, non-incumbent candidate charged with 91 felonies.'

It's fine to think 'probability-based' surveys are somewhat more representative right now but there's really no defensible fine line here.

The only thing an org using hard-and-fast rules like this is telling me is that they likely have no idea what they're talking about.

Pew Research Center has just released estimates and data from its annual National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS), which interviewed 5,733 U.S. adults identified via address-based sampling. The study had a 31% response rate. pewrsr.ch/3LKNIJC

Nationscape data is now available on the Harvard Dataverse! Lynn Vavreck and I interviewed over 500,000 people from June of 2019 to January 2021 about their political views.

You can access the data at doi.org/10.7910/DVN/CQ…

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Guessing it's not 'Smart'.

One my lines about growing up in Wilkes-Barre, PA is that it was so white that the Italians and the Irish still have beef in the early 2000s.

One must understand that 'White ethnic' divides were much more salient politically when Biden was coming of age, because it was a very long time ago.

Keeping a holistic view this early in the race is incredibly good advice.

Great work by Andrew Mercer.

This is a project that should get conducted every few years and it's a wonderful contribution to the field that they do it.

In what world are static images the real problem behind low demand for CNN?

I'm really excited to be part of the team behind Good Authority: goodauthority.org. Having helped found The Monkey Cage 16 years ago, I know Good Authority will continue the tradition of public-facing political science.

We will be launching soon. Stay tuned!

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Partisanship is a hell of a drug

Any dot above the line is a county where the margin in support of expanding abortion access was larger than Biden’s margin in 2020. washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/…

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