If you were wondering how I estimated that US imports from China have been underestimated by 20-25% in this week's The Economist for Mike Bird, well this is how. economist.com/finance-and-ec…

Anyone who was paying attention knew China’s real-estate market was a bubble. But the boom was too seductive to pass up. Great story by ⁦Rebecca Feng⁩ wsj.com/real-estate/ch…

TSMC makes the world’s most advanced chips in Taiwan. Geopolitical shifts are pushing it to set up a new factory in the American desert.

It needs to bring its cutting-edge tech but also a notoriously harsh, military-style work culture to the U.S. 🧵
restofworld.org/2024/tsmc-ariz…

China’s leaders have taken for granted free labour from the old, and from adult daughters and daughters-in-law. The state relies on family savings to fund health and social services, too. A coming wave of dementia will test that system to its limits economist.com/china/2024/04/…

Eye-opening chart from the IMF in the latest Fiscal Monitor. Public debt in China on a much worse path than the United States.

What’s the Point? That’s the question I ask myself after a very disappointing trek to the China Development Forum. I have seen the CDF in its best and worst days. China’s premier platform of debate and engagement with the world hit a new low in 2024. stephenroachauthor.com/whats-the-poin…

It was like yesterday when I advised a fund to invest in Musical.ly, in 2015. The growth hit the J curve, and 2 yrs later ByteDance acquired it for 1bn, defeating Facebook’s bid. BD then merged Musical.ly with its own TikTok.
nbcnews.com/politics/congr…

Happy International Women's Day! First, I think we should celebrate women everyday (& men). Anyway, here is a thread about women and the labor force participation with a focus on India. Ready? Let's go!

India's Womenomics? Modi’s Decade of Formalisation of Jobs Marches Forward👈

Martin Wolf: “China needs a new macroeconomic strategy. This is not about another ‘stimulus’. It is about changing the distribution of income and spending. The leadership does not want to do this. But events will force its hand in the end.”

ft.com/content/cc4079… via @ft

China government targets and outcomes 2021-24. You are welcome (and I welcome any corrections!)

1/3
There were no surprises in today's speech, but there were also no meaningful solutions. There will be a slight shift in the locus of borrowing from local governments to the central government, but nowhere near enough to achieve the growth target.

chinadaily.com.cn/a/202403/05/WS…

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the global economy experienced a “China shock,” a boom in imports of cheap Chinese-made goods that kept inflation low while taking manufacturing jobs. A sequel may be in the making.
Jason Douglas
wsj.com/world/china/th…
wsj.com/world/china/th…

In my latest for The Wire China:
For years, Sixth Tone succeeded in carving out a precarious, but unique space in China’s media ecosystem. But conversations with 15 former and current employees reveal how the publication has been neutered over the past year.

Chinese Travelers Hit the Road but Pinch Their Pennies—A record number of trips over the Lunar New Year holiday was offset by a drop in per-person spending
Stella Yifan Xie Grace Zhu
wsj.com/economy/chinas…
wsj.com/economy/chinas…

China’s massive property market is crumbling. Xi Jinping wants to revive socialist ideas about housing and put the state back in charge. with Stella Yifan Xie 🧵 wsj.com/world/china/ch… via The Wall Street Journal

I have been rereading Superpower Showdown by Lingling Wei 魏玲灵 and bob davis

Tis a great book based on great reporting

& also a reminder of how much has changed. the entire premise of the phase one deal would not be credible today

Absolute must-read by ⁦Don Weinland⁩ about approx 110m affluent (not super-rich) Chinese who’ve been huge beneficiaries of decades of growth, endlessly rising house prices etc but who are now on the wrong side of Xi Jinping’s remaking of the economy economist.com/briefing/2024/…

Thanks largely to Brad Setser, more and more policymakers in the US, the EU, and India (and even in China) understand how currency intervention in China has changed in the past 7 years. Those who don't understand should read his new piece.

on.cfr.org/3HTxRWA via Council on Foreign Relations

The IMF recommends a fiscal consolidation package adding up to 5.5 percent of GDP.

Several prominent commentaries by economists and journalists have vanished from China's internet in recent weeks, raising concerns Beijing is stepping up censorship efforts as it tries to put a positive spin on a struggling economy.
wsj.com/world/china/ch…
wsj.com/world/china/ch…