James McDermott @[email protected] John David Pressman David Ramsey AIXI is a perfect rolling sphere that you use to teach sincere students to think about a case of cognition where everything has in fact been fully specified; if you're an honest technical thinker, it teaches you to stop pulling out hypothetical complications that might save you.

I would love for ASI development to go well and be remembered as a dumb Luddite. I would *love* that. That’s basically the best case scenario.

I hope I’m wrong about AI danger or we get lucky. But I just can’t leave it to chance.

possibly a major problem for human societies is that you can't deliver effective criticism of a thing if you aren't deeply familiar with it, but you're (in many cases) unlikely to become deeply familiar with something if you notice something wrong with it and choose not to engage

All the dramatic claims have been about Twitter, but I feel like Facebook has already quietly become basically-not-a-functional-website. It is no longer a place with core functionality like 'in a discussion, there's a way for each person to get notified when the other responds'.

Rushing this out before the changes on Manifold potentially remove the ability to N/A markets:

What books will I enjoy reading in 2024? manifold.markets/EliezerYudkows…

feels good to be back in the arena

our app code is public: github.com/limitless-labs…

in terms of contracts, we're using the Gnosis CTF & building a novel AMM

be mean to us. your feedback is important & much appreciated 🙏

**more features cooking** 👨‍🍳

You see cool crypto use case.

I see Stripe not having to pay credit card companies a transaction fee.

The margin expansion must be... enormous.

The first rule of activism: It's not enough that your actions are intended to help fix some problem. They must actually help fix it. And you can't take this for granted, because the easiest forms of activism mostly don't.

I'll be in this panel airing live on May 7th, 10a Pacific at iai.tv/live.

Today in 4yo/AI stuffy relations, a lesson in how to not respond to a 4yo’s questions

A “surgical pause” won’t work because:
1) Politics doesn’t work that way
2) We don’t know when to pause

For the politics argument, I think people are acting as if we could just go up to Sam or Dario and say “it’s too dangerous now. Please press pause”.

Then the CEO would just…

It's unfortunate how discourse about dangerous capability evals often centers threats from today's models. Alice goes 'Look, GPT-4 can hack stuff / scam people / make weapons,' Bob goes 'Nah, it's really bad at it.' Bob's right! The ~entire worry is scaled-up future systems.

So, RAW, every 3rd-level wizard should spend all their days crafting magic items, and no 17th-level wizard should ever try to craft one.

And in one year, that 3rd-level wizard will earn enough money to buy a minor artifact, or seven Wish spells. By the rulebook prices, that is.