There might have indeed been serious issues with HMT under the previous government inaccurately reporting to the Office for Budget Responsibility the scale of in-year spending pressures. From the letter by the OBR chair to the Treasury Select Committee. Could be a big deal. 👇

Another example of why addressing BoE losses / introducing tiered reserves would *increase* monetary policy independence.

One of the key factors that has the Bank of England worried about lowering rates has been service price inflation. This chart shows energy prices were 2x more important than wages for driving it in 2022. Wages unchanged in importance - less than one fifth of firms cite them.

I think it's good that the new government is reviewing its public AI investment, including the supercomputer. Not because it's a bad idea per se, but because it needs to be part of a clear industrial strategy. The previous strategy was unfocussed. bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…

The OBR often gets blamed for having undue power. But it’s not the OBR, but the larger fiscal framework - incl fiscal rules - that need improving. Some ‘quick’ wins though: more scenario analysis + better modelling of public investment. Thanks Jack Barnett for quoting me 👇

This is, unsurprisingly, absolute nonsense Lots of governments around the world have a tax revenue higher than 38% of GDP, in fact the EU14 🇪🇺 average is higher than this The UK's 🇬🇧 level of tax is entirely unremarkable by international standards

Very thoughtful piece ft.com/content/a0a4fb…

This week's The Economist now also highlighting the big problem of QE-related losses at the Bank of England. They suggest a Fed-style approach of deferring losses. I think Chris Giles suggestion of tiered reserves is better, as it reduces public sector losses, not shift them.

Today's inflation stats bear out what we IPPR have been arguing for months. That core & service inflation will likely not be as sticky as the Bank of England has suggested. Due to high real rates biting, vacancies back to pre pandemic levels & inflation expectations anchored.

Profile of IPPR in today’s Financial Times ft.com/content/61a2e3…

I am incredibly proud of the IPPR team for all the influential work they are doing to shape progressive politics across the UK. Delighted the Financial Times have chosen to feature our work at this exciting moment. Lot more work to be done! ft.com/content/61a2e3…

A new government tackling growing and changing care needs needs new ideas. Almost 1 million more of us will be caring by 2035, 400k for 10+ hours a week. Today we set out the scale of the challenge and the first step to tackle it (1/ independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-n…

1/ In the The New Statesman I argue that we should want Rachel Reeves to succeed in delivering her growth mission for moral reasons as well as material ones. This is because good growth helps to create a more open, more democratic society. newstatesman.com/comment/2024/0…