(2/3) Second, applying Rambachan and Roth’s robust confidence set method, we find that few of the remaining studies are robust to very mild violations of the parallel trends assumption, benchmarked against pre-trend estimates. Ashesh Rambachan Jonathan Roth

1600-person randomised study over two years found having people WFH 2 days a week:
-increased productivity
-reduced quit rates (esp among women, non-managers & long commuters)
-no impact on performance or promotion rates

nature.com/articles/d4158…

I truly don’t understand the insistence that matching is awful while did is (at least sometimes) good. In both settings you have 1) some units exposed to treatments, 2) some not, and 3) you want to look at their differences over time.

🚨 SEVEN SAMURAI. 70TH ANNIVERSARY. BACK IN THEATERS 7/5. 🚨

Excited to share a review article written with guido imbens: “LaLonde (1986) after Nearly Four Decades: Lessons Learned” in which we summarized 5 main advancements in recent years. arxiv.org/abs/2406.00827 1/8

My new favorite example of why the mean is unreliable in the presence of outliers is definitely that the average president has been convicted of .74 felonies

kudos to the harvard harris poll for showing how wording matters here:

All roads lead to Rome

MOOD

Looking forward to this!

Does deliberation produce any lasting effects? James Fishkin, Valentin Bolotnyy🇺🇸🇺🇦, Josh Lerner, Alice Siu, & Norman Bradburn consider how to scale up the deliberative process after showing its effect on political engagement as a latent variable.
#APSRFirstView
ow.ly/2R0c50QRFio

People considering econ PhDs really should consider polisci PhD programs too.

You get to do pretty much the same work but get paid a lot less. Pretty good deal tbth

Jon Mellon Christopher Zorn Carlisle Rainey Alexander Sahn and I have a paper about people being up to no good with covariates, sort of along the lines you suggest. cambridge.org/core/journals/…

#OpenAccess from American Political Science Review -

Can Deliberation Have Lasting Effects? - cup.org/3SPk3mD

- JAMES FISHKIN, Valentin Bolotnyy🇺🇸🇺🇦, Josh Lerner, ALICE SIU & NORMAN BRADBURN

#FirstView

🚨 New Publication 🚨

In JIRD, Jan Smolenski, PhD and I critique the trend of IR theorists with little expertise in Ukrainian, Russian, and Eastern European politics making broad descriptive and prescriptive claims about the war in Ukraine.

Thread 1/23
rdcu.be/dp3Q3

Sacha Baron Cohen just a little ahead of his time

having a pogrom because your war of imperial conquest has hollowed out your state capacity, truly a nineteenth century ass country

The GOP's organizational cartel - the agreement binding party members behind their Speaker-designee - has collapsed.

It doesn't matter how many elections they hold or candidates they field if they can't coordinate on the floor; and they can't coordinate on the floor.

Seconding this. A quick thread on what I've observed hearing from friends.

I hope everyone who needed to hold every baby's severed head before believing Jews but instantly took Hamas's word never lives this down.