In my latest for Responsible Statecraft I argue that the US lawmaker's alleged illegal work on behalf of Baku is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to Azerbaijan’s influence game. Threat inflation from Russia and Iran key to get support on the Hill.

responsiblestatecraft.org/cuellar-azerba…

This is an extremely funny and well written piece

Only going to get worse. The fundamental problem with Russia’s growth since Feb. 2022 is that it’s driven by maximal utilisation of existing capacity and a tight labor market driving up wages that go into services, imports (which require ruble stability).

I was very pleased to help Ukrainian MP Oleg Dunda
publish this piece on the Russian reserve conundrum with Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center.

It's nice to see a subtler debate emerging on how best to mobilise the immobilised assets. All contributions are welcome!

atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econogra…

it was all empty calories btw

1/5 “Russian finance flows slump after US targets Vladimir Putin’s war machine' writes Financial Times. Thanks to max seddon Chris Cook & Anastasia Stognei for monitoring this critical issue and featuring insights from Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦. More: on.ft.com/3Uyp81Z

NEW EU ambassadors have struck a deal to seize windfall profits on frozen Russian assets and give to Ukraine, according to two diplomatic sources.

Worth €3-4bn to Ukraine.

*Euroclear management fee cut to 0.3%;
*90% funds will be spent on arms for Ukraine/10% reconstruction.

Political pressure proved too high

'RBI’s Board of Management has decided today not to pursue the proposed acquisition of STRABAG SE shares by RBI Group'

The showrunners are not even trying anymore

Russia’s FSB have infiltrated deep inside Ukraine’s security apparatus, acc to СБ України - flipping two senior officers employed in a state agency that oversees the personal security of Zelenskyy and almost all of Ukraine’s top officials.

on.ft.com/3QEo9wb

Quinn Slobodian (zeithistoriker) on the UK’s global empire of tax havens and money laundering go.nybooks.com/3UKxwgg

It’s a canny strategy by the Tories. Gradually defect to labour so the party is still in government after the next election.

Yes Ukraine bond holders, keep talking to me about your creditor committee’s - maybe add some DTEK bonds too while at it ?

'Just like the UAE, Azerbaijan plans to legitimize its authoritarian regime by hosting these global talks. & just like the UAE, Azerbaijan appears set to use COP to develop its international business ties.' politico.eu/article/good-c…

Kiss of death

Widely distributed claims that the AfD is Germany's most popular party among voters under 30 are the result of methodological mistakes, says pollster Forsa. Its figures put the party a distant third, see below right. newsletter.forsa.de/view/1839/1816…

It was wonderful to have the opportunity to discuss economic wars with one of the great economic historians Nicholas Mulder and my friend Esfandyar Batmanghelidj who is slowly transforming into the Oprah of sanctions with his fabulous podcast dedicated to their dark art thesanctionsage.com/p/episode-5-ma…

This is a valid point, some of the many Arctic LNG2 related entities designated may lack US nexus, but presume messaging is about making sure those that do (south korean icebreaker suppliers) arent tempted. Plus a deterrent from more meaningful investment in phase 2

Coming out June 11!

So the US soldier arrested by Russia traveled to Vladivostok to see a pro-Putin Russian girl who posted TikTok videos humiliating him in a language he doesn't understand & calling him a derogatory Russian term for an American. Good digging by Carl Schreck rferl.org/a/russia-gordo…