Some thoughts about the supplemental bill. This is good news, but it will primarily help Ukraine defend in 2024 and into 2025. Russia will still likely make further gains this year, and it doesn't fix all of Ukraine's issues. It should be seen as one part of a long-term strategy.

This by Lawrence Freedman is spot on. The US aid doesn’t win the war for Kyiv but makes it far harder for Moscow to do so.

Lawrence has consistently been the most sober & realistic interpreter of the war

What new aid really means for Ukraine — and for Putin ft.com/content/b346bc… Financial Times

After the celebration, my take for U.S. News & World Report - Is U.S. Aid to Ukraine Too Little, Too Late? usnews.com/opinion/articl…

Blinken: 'I had detailed conversations with a number of European leaders about their concerns [regarding China's assistance to Russia], including President Macron of France, German counterparts, British, many others – Italian. And I think all of us are looking to China to take…

Time for 🇩🇪 (and 🇪🇺) to get serious about de-risking.

New piece in lnternationale Politik Quarterly together with my GPPi colleague Jakob Hensing.

ip-quarterly.com/en/time-get-se…

Europe's phoney war with China is at an end.

After years of building up an improved arsenal for a trade war, Europe is now showing it is willing to get tough on Beijing.

EU pulls its gun on China, with Stuart Lau Koen Verhelst
politico.eu/article/eu-chi…

France’s debt rating could be downgraded by the Moody’s rating agency tonight – causing acute political embarrassment for President Emmanuel Macron as he tries to turn the tide of poor opinion polls before the European elections on 9 June 1/

Feels like a pretty seismic week in EU-China relations. I get the feeling that we're not in Kansas anymore

Here is a summary of the major events that have happened, let me know if I missed any, bearing in mind it's still only lunchtime on Friday...

Sobering read. h/t ⁦Konrad Muzyka - Rochan Consulting⁩ english.elpais.com/international/…

This is a great round-up of concise analysis of Macron’s speech from real experts who have a wide variety of views.

Having just been in Beijing, I was a bit baffled by the China visit of Germany's Chancellor.

Having mulled it over, in Foreign Policy I try to explain what was going on, and what lessons other western leaders might draw.

But a few caveats first....

foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/22/ola…

1/7 Beliefs in stability of Putin’s regime have become such a common place that I couldn’t help but recite for Foreign Affairs a few reasons why it is not, highlighting striking similarities with the late USSR foreignaffairs.com/russian-federa…

What Macron's speech on Europe's mortality says about the continent, the threats it faces, and his own legacy

In The Economist

economist.com/europe/2024/04…

Die Beteiligung der deutschen Firmen am „Wiederaufbau“ von Mariupol ist eine proaktive Leugnung des russischen Genozids an Mariupol für russisches Geld. Dienst an der Besatzungsmacht.

#AmoralischerKompass

ARD Online
Georg Restle Véronique Gantenberg

.Emmanuel Macron Sorbonne II speech today was dense & visionary, pessimistic but finally optimistic. It was much more far reaching than Sorbonne I. Key for Ursula von der Leyen re-election now will be her engagement with these ideas ahead, and at, the June European Council. Thread below

The May/June 2024 issue of our publication Foreign Affairs is out now:

📢Ukraine Tracker update: The new US aid package is large, but no game changer. It will help to bring Western support back to the level of early 2023, but only for about 6 months. Europe remains in lead on overall support, but did NOT fill the gap left by the US. What else? 1/8

«Driven by Putin’s whims and delusions, the system is liable to commit self-defeating blunders. For that reason, it is at permanent risk of crumbling overnight, as its Soviet predecessor did.»
Beautiful essay in Foreign Affairs by my colleague Maksim Samorukov. foreignaffairs.com/russian-federa…

Like in his 'letter to the citizens of Europe' of 2019, Macron frames his speech tomorrow as an address not only to the French, but all Europeans. But, like 2019, it is also inherently an election campaign speech.